2022年8月四川盆地持續性極端高溫特征及不同模式預報誤差分析
作者:
作者單位:

作者簡介:

通訊作者:

中圖分類號:

基金項目:

國家重點研發專項(2021YFC3000905)、四川智能網格預報創新團隊(SCQXCXTD202201)、高原與盆地暴雨旱澇災害四川省重點實驗室重大專項(SCQXKJZD202101,SCQXKJZD2021014,SCQXKJZD2021018,SCQXKJZD20210112)、四川省科技廳自然科學基金面上項目(2023NSFS0244)、高原與盆地暴雨災害四川省重點實驗室研究型業務面上專項(SCQXKJYJXMS202201)、四川省重點研發項目(2022YFS0540)、西南區域創新團隊(XNQYCXTD202202)資助


Characteristics and Model Error Analysis of Persistent Extreme Heat of Sichuan Basin in August 2022
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 圖/表
  • |
  • 訪問統計
  • |
  • 參考文獻
  • |
  • 相似文獻
  • |
  • 引證文獻
  • |
  • 資源附件
  • |
  • 文章評論
    摘要:

    本文基于2022年8月四川盆地104站逐時溫度、降水數據和1971—2021年歷史同期數據,及EC、CMAGFS、CMAMESO模式的2 m氣溫預報等數據,運用統計學相關方法分析了此次極端高溫過程的特征及預報誤差。結果表明:①2022年8月四川盆地極端高溫過程范圍大、強度強、持續時間長,有87.5%站最高氣溫超過該站歷史同期極值,且高溫最強盛時段較歷史同期明顯推后。②2022年8月最高氣溫分布為東高西低,最高氣溫與歷史同期極值差分布則相反,其中最高氣溫隨站點海拔增大而減小,而極值差則隨站點海拔先增大再減小。另外,受熱島效應影響,極值差大值站點主要集中在龍泉山脈附近。③高溫期間,最高、最低氣溫平均值高、距平大,且累計降水量和雨日數也明顯低于歷史同期。④相較而言,EC模式的預報優勢主要在盆地低海拔地區。而CMAMESO模式在盆地周邊陡峭地形區域的平均絕對誤差則更小。另外,EC模式預報的最高氣溫峰值出現時間更接近于實況,而CMAMESO模式預報高溫持續日數更接近實況。

    Abstract:

    Based on the hourly 2 m temperature and precipitation data of 104 stations in the Sichuan Basin in August 2022 and the historical data of the same period from 1971 to 2021, and the 2 m temperature forecast data of the EC, CMAGFS, and CMAMESO models, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and mode prediction deviation of this extreme heat weather process are analysed by statistical correlation method. The results show that: (1) In August 2022, the extreme heat weather process in the Sichuan Basin has a wide range, strong intensity, and long duration. There are 87.5% of stations in the basin that have broken the extreme value in the same period, and the peak period of the high temperature is obviously delayed compared with the same period in history. (2) The distribution of the maximum temperature in August 2022 is higher in the east and lower in the west, and the distribution of the difference between the maximum temperature and the extreme value in the same period is opposite, in which the maximum temperature decreases with the increase of the altitude of the station, while the extreme value difference first increases and then decreases with the altitude of the station. In addition, affected by the heat island effect, the stations with large extreme difference are mainly concentrated near the Longquan Mountain range. (3) During the high temperature period, the average temperature of the maximum and minimum are high, and the anomaly is large. In addition, the cumulative precipitation and rainy days are also far lower than the historical period. (4) In comparison, the prediction advantage of the EC model is mainly in the low elevation area of the basin, while the average absolute error of the CMAMESO model is smaller in the steep terrain area around the basin. In addition, the EC model predicts the peak temperature time closer to the reality, while the CMAMESO model predicts the number of hot days closer to the reality.

    參考文獻
    相似文獻
    引證文獻
引用本文

周秋雪,馮良敏,陳朝平,劉瑩.2022年8月四川盆地持續性極端高溫特征及不同模式預報誤差分析[J].氣象科技,2024,52(2):243~251

復制
分享
文章指標
  • 點擊次數:
  • 下載次數:
  • HTML閱讀次數:
  • 引用次數:
歷史
  • 收稿日期:2023-05-15
  • 定稿日期:2023-12-27
  • 錄用日期:
  • 在線發布日期: 2024-04-29
  • 出版日期:
您是第位訪問者
技術支持:北京勤云科技發展有限公司
午夜欧美大片免费观看,欧美激情综合五月色丁香,亚洲日本在线视频观看,午夜精品福利在线
>