一種飛機空中積冰潛勢診斷指數與檢驗評估
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工業和信息化部民機適航性驗證相關研究資助


An Aircraft Icing Potential Algorithm and Its Evaluation
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    摘要:

    飛機積冰是影響飛行安全的重要危險天氣,準確的積冰診斷對民航運行與安全具有重大意義,特別是對國產大飛機適航取證具有重要作用。本文參考改進的CIP(Current Icing Potential)指數,使用垂直速度和云中液態水含量對積冰潛勢診斷指數進行優化得到SCIP(Simplified Current Icing Potential)指數,該指數直接基于大氣層結資料給出較為準確地飛機積冰潛勢,具有命中率高、實用性強的特點。用2021年2月28日至12月31日民航航空器報告對原CIP指數和SCIP指數進行對比驗證評估,發現相比于原CIP指數,SCIP指數具有更優異的ROC曲線(Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve)和TSS評分(True Skill Score)。但是對于不同程度的積冰,原CIP指數和SCIP指數均表現出較一致診斷效果,表明SCIP指數對診斷飛機積冰潛勢具有重要作用,但無法判斷積冰強度。根據2020年3月16日陜西區域飛機結冰個例驗證表明增加垂直速度和云中液態水含量的影響對飛機積冰的描述更加細致,對提升積冰潛勢診斷效果具有重要意義。

    Abstract:

    Aircraft icing is an important and dangerous weather condition that affects flight safety. Accurate diagnosis of aircraft icing is of great significance to the operation and safety of civil aviation, especially with the advancement of airworthiness certification of domestic large aircraft; the diagnosis of aircraft icing potential attracts the attention of many departments such as civil aviation and meteorology. In this paper, referring to the improved CIP (Current Icing Potential) index, the fuzzy logic method is used to increase the correlation between the vertical velocity and the liquid water content in the cloud affecting aircraft icing, and optimize the aircraft icing potential equation to obtain the SCIP (Simplified Current Icing Potential) index. The index gives a relatively accurate aircraft icing potential directly based on atmospheric layer data and has the characteristics of a high hit rate and strong practicability in the diagnosis of aircraft icing. The aircraft icing potential diagnostic indexes are compared and validated, using the China Civil Aviation Aircraft reports from 28 February 2021 to 31 December 2021. The icing potential index is applied to reanalysis data to simulate historical icing events. Compared with the improved CIP index, the SCIP index shows better Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC) and True Skill Score (TSS). The results also show that increasing vertical velocity and cloud liquid water content in the aircraft ice accumulation potential diagnosis algorithm are crucial to avoid the warning of air alarms. However, for different degrees of ice accumulation, the improved CIP index and SCIP index show a consistent diagnostic effect, indicating that the SCIP index plays an important role in the diagnosis of aircraft ice accumulation potential but cannot judge the ice accumulation intensity. In order to further evaluate the influence of increasing vertical velocity and cloud liquid water content in the aircraft ice accumulation potential index, reanalysis data are used to calculate the aircraft ice accumulation potential of an individual case of aircraft ice formation in Shaanxi Province on 16 March 2020, indicating that increased upward vertical velocity and larger cloud liquid water content provide better conditions for aircraft ice accumulation under the condition of low cloud top temperature. The SCIP index makes up for the shortcomings of the improved CIP algorithm in the diagnosis of aircraft ice accumulation potential under this weather condition, indicating that the increase of these two factors is of great significance to improve the diagnosis effect of ice accumulation potential.

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周琦浩,施鈺鯤,王子祎,孫俊穎,蔣瑜.一種飛機空中積冰潛勢診斷指數與檢驗評估[J].氣象科技,2024,52(1):132~140

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  • 收稿日期:2023-01-05
  • 定稿日期:2023-09-15
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  • 在線發布日期: 2024-02-29
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