基于梯度提升樹算法的廣州市紫外輻射擬合模型構建與相關因子分析
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廣東省氣象公共服務中心科學技術研究項目(2021Z05)資助


Construction of Ultraviolet Radiation Fitting Model and Analysis of Correlation Factors in Guangzhou Based on Gradient Boosting Decision Tree
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    摘要:

    利用2019—2021年廣州市紫外輻射數據、常規氣象觀測數據以及環境空氣質量觀測數據,對廣州市紫外線輻射強度變化特征及與氣象、環境因子的相關性進行分析,選擇與廣州市紫外輻射顯著相關的7種特征因子,采用梯度提升樹(Gradient Boosting Decision Tree,GBDT)算法建立廣州市紫外輻射擬合模型。結果表明:①廣州市紫外線輻射強度具有明顯的季節變化和日變化特征,季節變化表現為夏秋季高、冬春季低的特征。2020、2021年紫外輻射強度的最大值出現在7月,2019年出現在9月。3年紫外線輻射最小值都出現在3月,2020年最小為15.9 W·m-2。日變化呈現出早晚小中午大的特征,于12:00左右達到日最大值;②與紫外線輻射強度顯著相關的因子為氣溫、能見度、總云量、相對濕度、太陽高度角、臭氧(O3)濃度、二氧化氮(NO2)濃度;③紫外線輻射模型擬合效果較好,訓練集和測試集的決定系數R2分別為0.93、0.80,對應的均方根誤差RMSE為2.7 W·m-2、4.9 W·m-2。模型擬合估算等級正確的為75%,相差1級的占21%,相差2級的比例為4%。

    Abstract:

    Based on data from ultraviolet radiation observations, traditional meteorological observations, and ambient air quality observations in Guangzhou from 2019 to 2021, we analyse the variation characteristics of ultraviolet radiant intensity in Guangzhou, and the correlations between ultraviolet radiation intensity and meteorological factors as well as ambient air quality factors. We select seven meteorological and ambient air quality factors significantly linked to the intensity of ultraviolet radiation in Guangzhou as characteristic elements for the input ultraviolet radiation intensity fitting model. We further use the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) algorithm to establish a fitting model for the city’s ultraviolet radiation intensity. The results demonstrate that: (1) The ultraviolet radiant intensity in Guangzhou has obvious seasonal and daily variation characteristics. The seasonal variation of ultraviolet radiation intensity in Guangzhou is characterized by high levels in summer and autumn, and low levels in winter and spring. In 2020 and 2021, the maximum value of ultraviolet radiation intensity in Guangzhou occurs in July, while in 2019, the maximum value of ultraviolet radiation intensity in Guangzhou appeared in September. The minimum ultraviolet radiation intensity in Guangzhou between 2019 and 2021 occurred in March, with the lowest intensity 15.9 W·m-2 in 2020. Daily variations in ultraviolet radiation intensity in Guangzhou typically show low in the morning and evening levels and a high at noon level, with ultraviolet radiation intensity reaching its daily maximum around 12 o’clock. (2) The meteorological and ambient air quality factors significantly correlated with the intensity of ultraviolet radiation in Guangzhou are air temperature, visibility, total cloud cover, relative humidity, solar altitude angle, ozone concentration, and nitrogen dioxide concentration. (3) The ultraviolet radiation intensity model in Guangzhou has a good fitting effect. The coefficient of determination for the training data set and the test data set of the ultraviolet radiation intensity fitting model in Guangzhou are 0.93 and 0.80, respectively. Moreover, the RMSE of the training and testing set data for the ultraviolet radiation intensity model in Guangzhou is 2.7 and 4.9 W·m-2 respectively. The estimate accuracy of ultraviolet radiation intensity levels in Guangzhou is 75%, one level difference in ultraviolet radiant levels accounts for 21%, and two level difference in ultraviolet radiant levels accounts for 4%.

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李文慧,楊穎璨,沈海波.基于梯度提升樹算法的廣州市紫外輻射擬合模型構建與相關因子分析[J].氣象科技,2024,52(1):124~131

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  • 收稿日期:2022-10-08
  • 定稿日期:2023-08-21
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  • 在線發布日期: 2024-02-29
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