中國雪都阿爾泰山暖區暴雪水汽特征分析
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新疆維吾爾自治區自然科學基金(2021D01A01)和新疆氣象局創新發展專項面上項目(MS202301)共同資助


Analysis of Water Vapor Characteristics of Warm-Sector Snowstorms of Altai Mountains in China
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    摘要:

    為進一步做好中國雪都阿勒泰山冬季冰雪旅游暴雪預報預警服務,利用阿爾泰山固態降水數據、NCEP/NCAR 再分析和GDAS 數據,應用天氣學診斷和不同水汽分析方法對2021年阿爾泰山區3次暴雪過程環流背景和水汽特征進行分析。結果表明:① 3次暴雪過程均為新疆北部典型的暖區暴雪過程。②歐拉方法分析表明,該區水汽主要源于大西洋及其沿岸,阿爾泰山西邊界為水汽輸入,東邊界和南邊界為水汽輸出,中、低層的水汽輸入量與暴雪量關系密切,水汽通量散度輻合區位于對流層低層。③HYSPLIT(拉格朗日)方法分析表明,水汽源地主要來自北冰洋、歐洲,其次是中亞和加拿大,與上述結論明顯不同;對暴雪區綜合貢獻較大的是對流層低層的水汽。④構建了阿爾泰山區暴雪過程水汽貢獻模型,700 hPa及以上水汽自源地到達關鍵區后主要從偏西(西南)路徑輸入暴雪區,700 hPa以下水汽到達關鍵區后,在環流合適時主要從東南路徑輸入暴雪區,但從偏西(西南)和西北路徑輸入暴雪區的水汽也不容忽視;水汽主要在對流層低層聚集,并輻合抬升。

    Abstract:

    The snow capital of China in the Altai Mountains, which is located in the northernmost part of Altay Prefecture in Xinjiang, experiences many Warm-Sector Snowstorms in winter due to the frequent southward movement of the polar front area. These snowstorm disasters sometimes cause more harm to the national economy and people’s lives than rainstorms, often resulting in huge losses to transportation, animal husbandry, electricity, etc. Meanwhile, in order to improve the service level of ice and snow tourism forecast in Xinjiang, it is necessary to actively explore the characteristics of water vapour during the winter snowstorms in the Altai Mountains. Based on the solid precipitation data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data of the Altai Mountains, the circulation background and water vapour characteristics of three snowstorms in the Altai Mountains in 2021 are analysed using synoptic diagnosis and different water vapour analysis methods. The results indicate that: (1) The three snowstorm processes are typical of the warm region of northern Xinjiang. The snowstorms mainly occur in the divergence area on the right side of the southwest (by the west) jet axis at the upper level, the southwest (by the west) frontal area at the bottom of the polar vortex, the convergence area in front of the outlet area of the southwest jet at the lower level, and the overlap zone of the surface decompression and temperature rise. (2) The Euler’s method analysis shows that the water vapour in this area mainly comes from the Atlantic Ocean and its coast. The western boundary of the Altai Mountains is a water vapour input, and the eastern and southern boundaries are water vapour outputs. The water vapour input in the middle and lower layers is closely related to the quantity of snowstorms. The convergence area of water vapour flux divergence is located in the lower troposphere. (3) The HYSPLIT’s (Lagrange) method analysis shows that water vapour mainly come from the Arctic Ocean and Europe, followed by Central Asia and Canada, significantly differing from the above conclusion; the water vapour in the lower troposphere makes a significant contribution to the overall snowstorm area. (4) The contribution model of water vapour for the snowstorm process in the Altai Mountains is constructed. When the water vapour of 700 hPa and above reaches the key area from the source, it mainly enters the snowstorm area from the west (southwest) path. When the water vapour of 700 hPa and below reaches the key area, it primarily enters the snowstorm area from the southeast path when the circulation is appropriate, but the contributions from the west (southwest) and northwest paths cannot be ignored; water vapour mainly accumulates in the lower troposphere and converges and rises.

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周雪英,莊曉翠,李博淵,儲鴻.中國雪都阿爾泰山暖區暴雪水汽特征分析[J].氣象科技,2024,52(1):76~89

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  • 收稿日期:2023-02-14
  • 定稿日期:2023-09-20
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  • 在線發布日期: 2024-02-29
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