河北省超高壓線路一次連續覆冰事件的模擬與診斷
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河北省科技廳重點研發計劃項目“導線覆冰和風偏氣象災害精準預警技術研究”(22375405D)、河北省氣象局科研開發項目“基于改進的Jones電線積冰模型預報預警技術研究”(21ky08)共同資助


Simulation and Diagnosis of a Continuous Ice Covering Event on UltraHigh Voltage Line in Hebei Province
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    摘要:

    利用1980—2021年河北省142個國家氣象站觀測資料以及電力部門提供的導線覆冰個例資料,分析了河北省歷史導線覆冰空間特征,發現省內南部沿海和張家口東北部主要以霧凇覆冰為主,邢臺東北部、滄州東部地區存在少量雨凇覆冰情況。系統分析2015年11月15次覆冰跳閘事故的天氣環流形勢,造成此次災害的冷空氣由北向南傳播,中后期疊加來自西部向東傳播的氣流;關鍵區對流層低層存在雪水混合物和明顯的風切變,對流層中層存在“負-正-負”的溫度異常層結分布特征,熱力環流中上升運動為覆冰提供了有利條件?;跉庀笥^測資料,綜合考慮導線覆冰增長、維持、消融過程,建立導線覆冰小時級覆冰厚度預報模型。利用覆冰個例進行檢驗,發現該模型能夠較好地捕捉氣象條件對導線覆冰過程的影響,能夠客觀地反映覆冰厚度時空分布特征,為覆冰監測預警提供精細化數據支撐。

    Abstract:

    Based on the observation data from 142 national meteorological stations in Hebei Province and the case data of conductor icing provided by the electric power department, the spatial characteristics of the historical conductor icing in Hebei Province are being analysed. It is found that the southern coast of Hebei Province and the northeast of Zhangjiakou mainly experience rime icing, and there is a small amount of glaze icing in the northeast of Xingtai and the east of Cangzhou. The weather circulation of 15 typical cases in November 2015 is systematically analysed. The cold air which causes the disaster is spreading from north to south, and the airflow moving from west to east is getting superimposed in the middle and late stages. In the key region, there is a mixture of snow and water as well as obvious wind shear in the lower troposphere, and a "negative-position-negative” temperature anomaly stratification distribution in the middle troposphere. The upward movement in the thermal circulation provides favourable conditions for ice covering. Based on meteorological observation data, a prediction model of hourly ice thickness is established, which comprehensively considers the growth, maintenance and ablation processes of wire ice coating. It is found that the model can better capture the influence of the meteorological conditions on the icecovering process of conductors, and can objectively reflect the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of ice-covering thickness, thus providing refined data support for ice-covering monitoring and early warning.

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尤琦,賈小衛,曲曉黎,趙增保,王潔,楊琳晗.河北省超高壓線路一次連續覆冰事件的模擬與診斷[J].氣象科技,2023,51(6):888~897

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  • 收稿日期:2022-10-24
  • 定稿日期:2023-06-26
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  • 在線發布日期: 2023-12-28
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