1981—2020年廣西森林火險氣象等級特征及成因分析
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廣西自然科學基金項目(2020GXNSFAA159092)、廣西科技計劃項目(桂科AB21075005)、廣西壯族自治區氣候中心山洪地質災害防治氣象保障工程2020年建設項目共同資助


Analysis of Meteorological Grade Characteristics and Causes of Forest Fire Risk in Guangxi from 1981 to 2020
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    摘要:

    基于GB/T36743—2018森林火險氣象等級國家標準,分析了廣西91個國家氣象站1981—2020年森林火險氣象等級特征,并利用林火實況進行了驗證。廣西高火險區位于桂西百色市、崇左市和沿海北海市,高火險期是10—12月。影響廣西森林火險氣象等級最主要的氣象要素是降水量,其次為氣溫,風速和相對濕度影響較小。利用NCEP/NCAR再分析資料、NOAA海溫資料和相關系數分析方法和合成分析方法,從海溫和對流層中低層位勢高度、風場、垂直速度和海平面氣壓等的異常特征對廣西高火險期高火險日數差異的分析表明:關鍵區海溫不同的海氣相互作用引起的降水量差異造成了廣西高火險日數的異常。秋季赤道中東太平洋冷(暖)海溫激發出菲律賓異常氣旋環流(南海異常反氣旋環流),東亞冬季風(西南暖濕氣流)偏強,副高偏弱偏東(偏強偏西),廣西處于下沉干燥(上升濕潤)氣流區,降水偏少(多),高火險期高火險日數偏多(少)。

    Abstract:

    Based on the GB/T 36743—2018 national standard for forest fire risk meteorological level, we have analyzed the characteristics of forest fire risk meteorological levels at 91 national meteorological stations in Guangxi from 1981 to 2020. We also verified our results using actual forest fire conditions. The areas with high forest fire risk are located in Baise and Chongzuo in the west of Guangxi, and Beihai in the coastal region. The average number of days with high fire risk is less in the northeast of Guangxi. The high fire risk period is from October to December, with the number of high fire risk days during this period accounting for 45.3% of the entire year. Among the four meteorological factors affecting the meteorological level of forest fire risk in Guangxi, precipitation has the greatest impact, followed by temperature. Wind speed and relative humidity have a comparatively lesser impact. We have studied the abnormal characteristics of sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation of sea level pressure, geopotential height, wind field, and vertical velocity in the middle and lower troposphere using NCEP/NCAR monthly average reanalysis data, NOAA monthly sea surface temperature data, correlation coefficient analysis method, and composite analysis method. We also have examined the causes of the differences in the number of high fire risk days during the high forest fire risk period in Guangxi. The results reveal that the variant interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere, induced by the sea surface temperature in key areas in autumn, lead to differences in precipitation during the high fire risk period in Guangxi. This in turn results in differences in the number of high fire risk days. In autumn, the cold sea surface temperature in the equatorial Middle East Pacific triggers the abnormal cyclone circulation in the Philippines from October to December. The East Asian winter monsoon becomes stronger, and the western Pacific subtropical high is weaker than normal and shifts to the east. Consequently, Guangxi is in a sinking dry air flow area with less precipitation, leading to a higher number of high fire risk days during the high fire risk period. Conversely, the warm sea surface temperature in the equatorial Middle East Pacific in autumn gives rise to the abnormal anticyclone circulation in the South China Sea. The western Pacific subtropical high is stronger, and its ridge point extends westward. The warm and humid southwest airflow is stronger, and Guangxi is in the area of rising humid airflow. This results in more precipitation, thereby reducing the number of high fire risk days during the high fire risk period.

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黃翠銀,韋麗英,何莉陽,何慧,覃衛堅.1981—2020年廣西森林火險氣象等級特征及成因分析[J].氣象科技,2023,51(6):879~887

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  • 收稿日期:2022-10-11
  • 定稿日期:2023-08-29
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  • 在線發布日期: 2023-12-28
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