臺風“煙花”衰減后引發江蘇中部降水加強分析
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徐州市氣象局科研課題(202002)、徐州市氣象局科研課題(202105)共同資助


Analysis of Intensification of Precipitation in Central Jiangsu after Weakening of Typhoon “InFa”
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    摘要:

    2021年第6號臺風“煙花”在7月28日衰減為熱帶低壓后,臺風外圍螺旋雨帶致使江蘇中部接連出現降水突增現象。本研究利用常規觀測資料、數值預報產品和ERA5再分析資料,對強降水過程進行分析。結果表明:ECMWF-FINE數值模式產品對于形勢場預報較為準確,但中尺度CMA模式更能體現極端降水的量級和落區。分析降水增強原因可知,“煙花”移動時受到高空引導氣流作用較小,其在安徽境內打轉時,西風槽攜帶弱冷空氣南下降低了大氣穩定度并強迫暖濕空氣抬升。高低空散度場與渦度場集中在較窄區域內,構成了垂直互耦的優勢配置,有利于形成強烈且深厚的上升運動,是暴雨產生和持續的重要動力機制。強降水區位于濕位渦(MPV)負中心的暖濕氣流中,MPV負值區可反映暴雨落區。MPV1和MPV2分布體現了冷空氣入侵所引發的對流降水特征。此外,江蘇中部位于螺旋云帶右側高濕高能區,東北氣流與西南氣流匯合形成了旺盛的線狀對流云團,配合地面輻合線對中尺度系統的觸發和維持,從而產生極端強降水。

    Abstract:

    After the No. 6 typhoon “In-Fa” in 2021 decayed to a tropical depression on July 28, the spiral rainbands around the typhoon caused a sudden increase in precipitation in central Jiangsu Province. Based on the conventional observation data, numerical forecast products and ERA5 reanalysis data, this paper analyzes the process of heavy rainfall. The results show that the ECMWF-FINE numerical forecast product was more accurate for forecasting the situation field. However, the mesoscale CMA models could reflect the magnitude and the extreme precipitation area. Analysis of the reasons for the intensification of precipitation shows that the movement of “In-Fa” was little affected by the guiding air from high altitude; the weak cold air carried by the westerly wind trough reduced the atmospheric stability and forced the warm and humid air to the east of the typhoon to lift when it moved around in Anhui Province. The high and low spatial divergence fields and vorticity fields were concentrated in a relatively narrow area, which constituted an advantageous configuration of vertical mutual coupling. It was conducive to the formation of strong and deep vertical motion, which was an important dynamic mechanism for the generation and persistence of heavy rainfall. The heavy precipitation area was in the warm and humid air flow area of the negative centre of the wet potential vortex (MPV). The negative area of MPV had indicative significance for the direction of the heavy precipitation zone. The distribution of MPV1 and MPV2 reflected the characteristics of convective precipitation caused by the invasion of cold air. In addition, the central part of Jiangsu was located in the highhumidity and highenergy region to the right of the spiral cloud belt. The northeast and southwest airflow converged to form strong linear convective cloud clusters, along with the mesoscale system, which triggered and maintained with the ground convergence line, resulting in extremely heavy precipitation.

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李靜怡,武艷,席琳,薛丹,張慶池.臺風“煙花”衰減后引發江蘇中部降水加強分析[J].氣象科技,2023,51(6):835~847

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  • 收稿日期:2022-05-30
  • 定稿日期:2023-08-20
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  • 在線發布日期: 2023-12-28
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