基于改進層次分析法的雷電防護能力模糊綜合評價
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中國氣象局軟科學研究項目(2020ZDIANXM02)、河北省氣象局科研開發項目(20zc03)、保定市科技計劃項目(2341ZF168)資助


Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Lightning Protection Ability Based on Improved Analytic Hierarchy Process
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    摘要:

    為科學評價雷電防護措施的防護能力,分析國內外多種評價方法的優劣,結合雷電防護措施的特點提出基于改進層次分析法的模糊綜合評價。依據雷電防護相關技術標準和規范,綜合考慮雷電環境、承載體特征、自然因素的影響,建立雷電防護能力評價指標體系。利用改進層次分析法計算各級指標的權重,采用模糊綜合評價法確定雷電防護能力評價等級。運用此方法對采取多種雷電防護措施的油氣集輸站進行雷電防護能力評價,評價等級與實際情況和有關文獻案例相符,表明該方法適用于雷電防護能力的評價。

    Abstract:

    Lightning protection is a measure taken to prevent and reduce material losses and loss of life or personal injury caused by lightning strikes. Lightning protection facilities are easily affected by the external environment and their decreasing performance. Therefore, it is of great significance to evaluate the protection ability of lightning protection measures scientifically to ensure and improve the protection effect. The advantages and disadvantages of fault tree analysis, Bayesian network evaluation, neural network, failure mode analysis, Kent score, and principal component analysis are discussed. Based on the characteristics of coupling and fuzziness of lightning protection measures and the requirement of reasonably determining evaluation index weight, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on improved analytic hierarchy process is proposed. According to the relevant technical standards and norms of lightning protection, considering the impact of the lightning environment, carrier characteristics, and natural factors, an evaluation index system of lightning protection capability with 6 primary indexes and 17 secondary indexes is established. The weights of each index are calculated by establishing a comparison matrix, calculating importance ranking index, constructing a judgment matrix, calculating a transfer matrix, constructing an optimal transfer matrix, calculating a quasi-optimal consistent matrix, solving the feature vector, and so on. The evaluation set and membership matrix of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation are established, and the single index fuzzy evaluation is carried out by using the weight vector and membership matrix corresponding to the evaluation level. The multi-index fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is carried out by using a new matrix composed of a single index evaluation vector and an index weight vector. The evaluation grade of lightning protection capability is determined by the principle of maximum membership degree. This method is used to evaluate the lightning protection ability of the oil and gas gathering station library containing an inflammable and explosive production area, information control function area, and power system function area. The evaluation level is consistent with the actual situation and related literature cases, indicating the applicability and correctness of the method, and providing guidance for the improvement of lightning protection measures and lightning protection ability.

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梁景峰,劉偉娜,張靜,馮鶴.基于改進層次分析法的雷電防護能力模糊綜合評價[J].氣象科技,2023,51(5):755~763

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  • 收稿日期:2022-07-28
  • 定稿日期:2023-02-07
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  • 在線發布日期: 2023-11-01
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