基于氣溶膠激光雷達觀測的人工消減霧霾作業效果分析
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中國氣象局創新發展專項任務(CXFZ2022J037)、自治區自然科學基金項目(2021D01A153)、新疆氣象局引導性計劃項目(YD202204)資助


Effect Analysis of Artificial Haze Dispersal Based on Aerosol Lidar
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    摘要:

    利用氣溶膠激光雷達觀測的消光系數數據,對2019年12月北疆沿天山的石河子市開展人工消減霧霾作業效果進行分析,主要采用了符號檢驗、成對秩和檢驗等非參數性檢驗法,以及參數性t驗法等人工影響天氣的物理統計檢驗方法,得出了基于氣溶膠激光雷達消光系數為依據的人工消減霧霾作業效果。結果為:符號檢驗法檢驗得出飛機人工消減霧霾作業后20 min,400 m以下不同高度消光系數平均值減小的可信度達到非常顯著的99.5%,進一步按照95%的可信度閾值得出減小值為0.05,減小率為9.8%;成對秩和檢驗法得出的作業正效果可信度達到97.5%,很顯著;但是參數性t檢驗得出作業正效果的可信度只有90%~80%,未達到99.5%的閾值,顯著性一般。這與作業采用了不同類型的催化劑如只用吸濕性干粉催化劑,以及播撒作業高度偏高導致作為樣本的消光系數變化效果不能滿足檢驗效率相關。進一步分析表明,飛機人工消減霧霾作業后20 min,400 m以下不同高度消光系數的減小響應效果自上而下遞減,這與人工影響作業播撒的催化劑作用的物理機制自上而下逐步響應的過程相一致。

    Abstract:

    With the economic and social development of Shihezi, especially the continuous advancement of industrialization, the pollution weather caused by the haze weather in Shihezi occurs frequently in winter. The heavy pollution weather caused by the haze in winter in 2019 has exceeded 50 days, and the ambient air quality has been deteriorating. In this paper, an analysis is made to investigate the impact of artificial smog dispersal in Shihezi, north of Tianshan Mountain, using the data of extinction coefficient observed by the aerosol lidar in Shihezi in December 2019. The methods mainly adopt the physical statistical test method of weather modification, such as the sign test, pairwise rank sum test of inspection, nonparametric tests, and parametric t-test. The smog reduction effect is obtained based on the extinction coefficient of aerosol lidar. In addition, the ground station monitoring cannot obtain the vertical distribution characteristics and evolution law of pollution. At present, most scholars use aerosol lidar to fill this monitoring gap and realize three-dimensional monitoring of the pollution process. The results are as follows: 20 minutes after the artificial smog dispersal operation, the reliability of the reduction of the average extinction coefficient at different heights below 400 m is 99.5%. Further, according to the 95% confidence threshold, the reduction value is 0.05, and the reduction rate is 9.8%. The reliability of the positive effect obtained by the pairwise rank sum test is 97.5%, which is very significant. However, the reliability of the positive effect obtained by the parametric t-test is only 90% to 80%, which does not reach the threshold of 99.5%, indicating a general significance. This is related to the fact that different types of catalysts are used in operation, such as only hygroscopic dry powder catalyst, and that the variation effect of extinction coefficient as samples cannot meet the test efficiency due to the high seeding height. Further analysis shows that the response effect of reducing the extinction coefficient at different heights below 400 meters decreases from top to bottom 20 minutes after the aircraft’s manual haze reduction operation, which is consistent with the gradual response process of the physical mechanism of the catalyst effect that artificially affects the operation seeding from top to bottom. In China, meteorologists have used weather modification to improve the quality of ambient air. In terms of this paper, the weather modification technology is used to carry out the winter haze reduction test in Shihezi. In the course of the test, the extinction coefficient detected by aerosol lidar is utilized to preliminarily analyze the test effect, which is the first time in China.

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李斌,鄭博華,王紅巖,任崗,王存亮,劉輝.基于氣溶膠激光雷達觀測的人工消減霧霾作業效果分析[J].氣象科技,2023,51(5):728~737

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  • 收稿日期:2022-07-24
  • 定稿日期:2023-08-04
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  • 在線發布日期: 2023-11-01
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