面向同化的探空溫度數據質控參數優化及誤差特性分析
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福建省自然科學基金(2021J011256)資助


Analysis of Parameter Optimization of Quality Control and Error Characteristics of Radiosonde Temperature for Assimilation
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    摘要:

    針對雙權重標準差法對探空溫度質量控制中閾值參數不確定的問題,提出了以正態波形指標偏度和峰度為判定依據的閾值Z參數優化算法。利用2017年福建3部探空溫度資料和ERA5模式再分析溫度數據,對探空溫度增量數據進行不同數據集質控前后對比分析總結出:峰偏值CKS隨閾值Z的分布曲線表明閾值Z偏大則會造成質控不完全,閾值Z偏小則會造成過度質控;以峰偏值CKS所確定的最優閾值Z雙權重標準差法比固定閾值的更符合模式同化系統正態分布要求,為探空溫度數據在模式同化的應用提供了更好的質控方法。在質控前后溫度增量分布特征上,溫度觀測增量總是以某一固定增量值在整個氣壓高度上剔除離群值,其中57.15%的離群點主要分布在0~100 hPa范圍內,42.85%的離群點均勻分布在100~1000 hPa范圍內,其中0~100 hPa范圍內溫度增量絕對值大于10 ℃的異常點是由于溫度傳感器受太陽輻射等因素影響超出了正常探測誤差范圍,這些異常點可以在質控前提前剔除,進一步提升探空溫度數據質量。

    Abstract:

    Aiming at the problem of uncertainty regarding the threshold parameters in the quality control of radiosonde temperature using the bi-weight standard deviation method, an optimization algorithm for threshold Z parameters based on the skewness and normal waveform indicators is being proposed. By utilizing the temperature data from three radiosonde stations in Fujian in 2017 and the ERA5 model reanalysis temperature data, a comparative analysis of the different datasets of the sounding temperature increment data before and after quality control is conducted. The distribution curve of the kurtosis-skewness value CKS with threshold Z indicates that a higher threshold Z will result in incomplete quality control, while a lower threshold Z will result in excessive quality control. The optimal threshold Z of the bi-weight standard deviation method, as determined by the kurtosis-skewness value CKS, is more consistent with the normal distribution requirements of the model assimilation system than the fixed threshold of the bi-weight standard deviation method. This provides a better method for quality control of radiosonde temperature data in model assimilation. Regarding the distribution characteristics of temperature increment before and after quality control, the temperature observation increment consistently removes outliers from the entire pressure atmosphere using a fixed increment value. Around 57.15% of outliers are primarily distributed in the range of 0-100 hPa, while the remaining 42.85% of outliers are evenly distributed in the range of 100-1000 hPa. The abnormal points, where the absolute value of temperature increment within the range of 0-100 hPa is greater than 10 ℃, are caused by factors such as solar radiation affecting the temperature sensor, which exceed the normal detection error range. These abnormal points can be removed in advance before quality control, further improving the quality of radiosonde temperature data.

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汪學淵,丘祖京,徐竹泉.面向同化的探空溫度數據質控參數優化及誤差特性分析[J].氣象科技,2023,51(5):629~638

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  • 收稿日期:2022-05-07
  • 定稿日期:2023-06-25
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  • 在線發布日期: 2023-11-01
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