渭北蘋果花期凍害氣象指數保險設計
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陜西省氣象局秦嶺和黃土高原生態環境氣象重點實驗室開放研究基金(2019Y10和2022G7)、陜西省重點研發計劃項目(2022NY219)共同資助


Design and Analysis of Weather Index Insurance Product for Frost Injury in Apple Florescence in Weibei
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    為科學設計渭北蘋果花期凍害氣象指數保險產品,提供氣象指數保險技術參考。研究選取旬邑縣作為陜西省渭北地區蘋果代表縣,利用1991—2020年氣象、蘋果花期物候、產量等數據,選取蘋果花期凍害極端低溫和過程累積危害指數作為備選氣象指數,采用滑動平均〖CD*2〗灰色預測法分離蘋果氣象產量。通過氣象指數與蘋果減產率的相關分析,確定蘋果花期凍害氣象指數,構建蘋果花期凍害氣象指數與減產率之間的關系模型。利用蘋果單產風險分布特點,選取6種分布模型利用參數分布法進行擬合,并根據Anderson-Darling(A-D)檢驗結果和概率密度函數圖篩選最優分布。最后根據保險觸發值,厘定不同賠付觸發條件下的保險純費率。結果表明:代表縣蘋果花期凍害過程累積危害氣象指數Ts與減產率的相關性顯著強于蘋果花期凍害極端低溫氣象指數Tc;Ts與減產率之間存在正向線性關系模型;蘋果單產風險分布符合柯西分布;當賠付觸發條件對應2%、4%、6%、8%減產率時,旬邑縣各鄉鎮蘋果花期凍害氣象指數保險產品純費率區間為0.40%~1.84%。相較傳統蘋果農業保險產品,蘋果花期凍害氣象指數保險產品可實現差異化費率,有利于發揮氣象指數保險優勢。

    Abstract:

    To design and improve the weather index insurance product for frost injury in apple florescence, Xunyi is selected as the representative apple planting county in the Weibei region of Shaanxi Province. The data of meteorology, apple flowering phenophase and yields from 1991 to 2020 are used for design and analysis. The meteorological yield of apples is separated by using moving average and grey prediction methods. The weather index based on extremely low temperatures and the frost injury process cumulative hazard during apple flowering is constructed for selection. The weather index for frost injury in apple florescence is determined by correlation analysis between weather index and yield reduction rate. The regression model between weather index and yield reduction rate is constructed. According to apple yield risk distribution characteristics, using the parameter distribution method, a variety of distribution models are selected to fit apple yield risk distribution. The optimal distribution model is selected by A-D test results and probability density function diagram. The pure premium rates are determined under different compensation trigger conditions. Results show that the correlation between cumulative hazard weather index in the frost injury process and yield reduction rate is higher than that between extremely lowtemperature weather index in representative counties and yield reduction rate. The yield reduction rate has a linear relationship with the ∑Ts weather index. Apple yield risk distribution fit to Cauchy distribution. The pure premium rates of weather index insurance products for frost injury in apple florescence are from 0.40 to 1.84 percent when yield reduction rates are 2,4,6 and 8 percent in Xunyi. The rationality and applicability of the weather index insurance product have been enhanced compared to traditional agricultural insurance products, which is beneficial to giving full advantages to weather index insurance.

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張勇,屈振江,劉璐,梁軼,柏秦鳳,羅斌,張震.渭北蘋果花期凍害氣象指數保險設計[J].氣象科技,2023,51(4):605~612

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  • 收稿日期:2022-06-25
  • 定稿日期:2023-02-08
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  • 在線發布日期: 2023-08-29
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