祁連山北坡東段2010—2020年人工增雨試驗效果檢驗評估
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西北區域人工影響天氣能力建設項目研究試驗項目資助


Inspection and Evaluation of Artificial Precipitation Enhancement Test Effectiveness in East Part of North Slope of Qilian Mountains During Period of 2010-2020
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    摘要:

    使用祁連山北坡中段和東段5—9月面雨量和水文資料,運用非隨機人工增雨試驗中的序列檢驗、區域對比、區域雙比和區域回歸等4種數理統計效果檢驗評估方法,對2010—2020年在祁連山北坡東段開展的人工增雨作業效果進行檢驗評估。試驗發現:4種效果檢驗評估方法均證明祁連山北坡東段開展的人工增雨試驗為正效果,其中區域對比、區域雙比、區域歷史回歸試驗效果檢驗通過了顯著性水平α≤0.10的顯著性檢驗;通過對4種評估檢驗方法分析,區域歷史回歸試驗方法使用的樣本容量較大,避免了人為選擇歷史相似天氣容易引入眾多主觀偏倚和爭議的操作程序,產生的假效果相比其他試驗最小、功效最高,可作為最終評估結果,祁連山北坡東段2010—2020年平均相對人工增雨效果為26%。進一步評估了祁連山北坡東段2010—2020年開展大規模人工增雨對石羊河流域生態環境改善的影響, 分析發現:石羊河年平均徑流量增加了124.6%、民勤蔡旗斷面年平均下泄水量增加了124.3%、民勤盆地地下水位上升了2.46 m,干涸近半個世紀的青土湖水域面積持續增大。

    Abstract:

    Based on the rainfall data and hydrological data from May to September in the east part of the north slope of the Qilian Mountains, we analyze the effect of artificial rain enhancement from 2010 to 2020 by using four mathematical statistical test methods, including non-randomized experiments, using sequence, regional comparison, regional double ratio and regional regression. The results show that artificial rain enhancement tests in the east part of the north slope of the Qilian Mountains are positive effects, proved by the four methods of effect evaluation. The effectiveness tests of region contrast, region double ratio and region regression pass the test of significance level α≤0.10. Through the analysis of the four evaluation test methods, the regional historical regression test method uses a large sample size, avoiding the artificial selection of historically similar weather is prone to introduce numerous subjective biases and controversial operating procedures, resulting in the smallest false effect and the highest efficacy compared with other tests, which can be used as the final evaluation result. The average relative cloud-seeding effectiveness in the eastern northern slope of the Qilian Mountains from 2010 to 2020 is 26%. The impact of large-scale artificial rainfall on the ecological environment improvement of the Shiyang River basin in the eastern northern slope of the Qilian Mountains from 2010 to 2020 is further evaluated. The analysis finds that the annual average runoff of the Shiyang River increases by 124.6%, and the annual average discharge of the Caiqi section in Minqin increases by 124.3%. The groundwater level in Minqin Basin rises by 2.46 m, and the water area of Qingtuhu Lake, which has been dry for nearly half a century, continues to increase.

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楊永龍,錢莉,李天江,孫占峰.祁連山北坡東段2010—2020年人工增雨試驗效果檢驗評估[J].氣象科技,2023,51(4):595~604

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  • 收稿日期:2022-04-01
  • 定稿日期:2023-02-21
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  • 在線發布日期: 2023-08-29
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