華東地區能見度時空變化特征及影響因子分析
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山東省自然科學基金項目(No.ZR2019MD022)資助


Spatial-Temporal Variation of Visibility and Its Influencing Factors in East China
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    摘要:

    為探究華東地區能見度變化情況,利用1973—2020年的能見度數據、2014—2019年的氣象要素和污染物濃度數據,采用趨勢分析、經驗正交函數(Empirical Orthogonal Function,EOF)分解、相關分析的方法,分析了能見度時空變化特征及影響因子。結果表明:①1973—2020年能見度呈顯著(p<0.01)下降趨勢,變化傾向率為-1.315 km/10a,季節之間存在差異,夏、秋季能見度下降速率較大分別為1.681 km/10a、1.443 km/10a;冬、春季下降幅度相對較小分別為1.092 km/10a、1.091 km/10a。其中,1973—2012年能見度呈顯著(p<0.01)下降趨勢,變化傾向率為-1.204 km/10a,2013—2020年能見度呈不顯著(p>0.05)增加趨勢,變化傾向率為2.229 km/10a,近8年(2013—2020年)來能見度存在明顯改善。②華東地區南部、北部能見度較好,中部能見度較差。EOF分解第1模態表明華東地區能見度整體變化趨勢一致,第2模態具有明顯的區域差異。③能見度與相對濕度、PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2均呈負相關,與O3質量濃度呈正相關,相對濕度是對能見度下降影響最大的因子,其次是PM2.5質量濃度。氣溫和氣壓與能見度的關系存在較強的不確定性。

    Abstract:

    In order to explore the changes in visibility in East China, using visibility data from 1973 to 2020, meteorological elements and pollutant concentration data from 2014 to 2019, the temporal and spatial variation characteristics and influencing factors of visibility are analyzed by using trend analysis, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition, and correlation analysis. The results show that from 1973 to 2020, the visibility shows a significant (p<0.01) decreasing trend, and the trend rate of change is -1.315 km/10a. There are differences between seasons. The decreasing rates of visibility in summer and autumn are 1.681 km/10a and 1.443 km/10a, respectively. The decrease rates in winter and spring are 1.092 km/10a and 1.091 km/10a, respectively. The visibility shows a significant (p<0.01) decreasing trend from 1973 to 2012, and the change tendency rate is -1.204 km/10a. The visibility shows an insignificant (p>0.05) increasing trend during 2013-2020, and the change tendency rate is 2.229 km/10a. Visibility has improved significantly in the past eight years (2013-2020). Visibility is better in the south and north of East China but poorer in the middle. The first mode of EOF decomposition shows that the overall change trend of visibility in East China is consistent. The second mode has obvious regional differences. Visibility is significantly negatively correlated with relative humidity, PM2.5, PM10, SO2, and NO2, and positively correlated with O3 mass concentration. Relative humidity is the most important factor affecting visibility reduction, followed by PM2.5 mass concentration. The relationship between temperature and pressure, and visibility is strong uncertainty.

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董芳淑,廉麗姝,孫博雯,程禛,朱艷冰.華東地區能見度時空變化特征及影響因子分析[J].氣象科技,2023,51(4):510~519

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  • 收稿日期:2022-07-14
  • 定稿日期:2323-04-18
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  • 在線發布日期: 2023-08-29
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