1961—2020年青海高原氣候變化特征
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青藏高原第二次科考項目(2019QZKK0105)、國家自然科學基金項目(U20A2081、U21A2021)和青海省科技廳應用基礎研究項目(2021ZJ757)共同資助


Characteristics of Climate Change in Qinghai Plateau from 1961 to 2020
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    摘要:

    選取1961—2020年青海高原50個地面氣象觀測站逐月氣溫(平均、最高、最低)、降水和風速資料,利用氣候變化趨勢轉折判別模型(Piecewise Linear Fitting Model,PLFIM)、氣候傾向率等方法,分析青海高原氣候變化的時空分布和年代際趨勢轉折變化等特征。結果表明:〖JP2〗①近60年來青海高原年平均氣溫呈顯著上升趨勢,其中平均最低氣溫的升溫速率尤為明顯,為0.62 ℃·(10a)-1;年降水量呈波動上升趨勢,進入21世紀后呈顯著增加趨勢,速率為39.9 mm·(10a)-1;年平均風速整體呈減小趨勢,其中以茫崖站最為明顯,風速減小速率為-0.56 m·s-1·(10a)-1。②年平均氣溫和平均最高氣溫在1972年和1983年發生了年代際趨勢轉折,平均最高氣溫第3次轉折發生在2009年,平均最低氣溫沒有發生明顯的年代際趨勢轉折。年降水在1972年、1983年和2000年發生年代際趨勢轉折;年平均風速發生在1998年和2009年。③與舊氣候態(1961—1990年)相比,新氣候態下(1991—2020年)青海高原年平均氣溫、平均最高氣溫和平均最低氣溫的均值分別上升了1.16 ℃、1.22 ℃和1.81 ℃,向高溫方向漂移,且概率密度分布形狀更加偏平,氣候趨于不穩定;④在全球變暖背景下,青海高原年平均氣溫和年降水量均呈增加趨勢,其中年平均氣溫的增溫速率遠超中國、同緯度地區及全球平均水平;降水量年際波動較大,但整體呈增加趨勢。

    Abstract:

    Based on the monthly temperature (average, maximum and minimum), precipitation and wind speed data observed at 50 stations on the Qinghai Plateau from 1961 to 2020, the temporal and spatial distribution and interdecadal trend turning of climate change on the Qinghai Plateau are analyzed by using piecewise linear fitting model (PLFIM) and climate tendency rate. The results show that: (1) the temperature (average, maximum and minimum) of the Qinghai Plateau showed a significant upward trend from 1961 to 2020, among which the rate of warming of the minimum temperature was particularly obvious, with an average increase of 0.62 ℃ per decade. Precipitation showed a fluctuating upward trend, and increased significantly after entering the 21st century, with a rate of 39.9 mm·(10a)-1. Wind speed showed a decreasing trend, among which the wind speed at Mangya Station was the most obvious, with a decrease rate of -0.56 m·s-1·(10a)-1. (2) The average and maximum temperatures of the Qinghai Plateau experienced interdecadal trend turning in 1972 and 1983, the third turning in maximum temperature occurred in 2009, and no significant interdecadal trend turning occurred in minimum temperature. Interdecadal trend turning in precipitation occurred in 1972, 1983 and 2000. The interdecadal trend turning of wind speed occurred in 1971, 1998 and 2009. (3) Compared with the previous climate state (1961-1990), the annual average, maximum and minimum temperatures increased by 1.16 ℃, 1.22 ℃ and 1.81 ℃ respectively, from 1991 to 2020, and the probability density distribution was flatter, indicating that the temperature dispersion was greater and the climate instability was enhanced. (4) Under the background of global warming, the average temperature and precipitation on the Qinghai Plateau increased in the past 60 years, with the average temperature increasing rate much greater than those of the global, China and the same latitude regions. Interannual fluctuations in precipitation were large, but the overall trend was increasing.

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張璐,李紅梅,溫婷婷.1961—2020年青海高原氣候變化特征[J].氣象科技,2023,51(4):489~498

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  • 收稿日期:2022-06-28
  • 定稿日期:2023-05-15
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  • 在線發布日期: 2023-08-29
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