基于客觀識別的冬季南支槽強度年際變化及其與南方降水的關聯性
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高原與盆地暴雨旱澇災害四川省重點實驗室科技發展基金項目(SCQXKJQN2020004)資助


Interannual Variation of South Branch Trough Intensity in Winter Based on Objective Identification and Its Relationship with Precipitation
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    摘要:

    利用歐洲中心ERA-Interim逐日再分析資料,基于南支槽客觀識別方法定義了一個南支槽強度指數,并結合格點降水資料,對1980—2019年冬季南支槽強度的年際變化特征及其與中國降水、大氣環流和水汽輸送的聯系進行了研究。結果表明:① 南支槽強度變化主要呈準4年周期。② 赤道中東太平洋海溫是影響南支槽年際變化的一個重要因素,與南支槽強度有很強的負相關關系,其中Nino 3區的海溫變化對南支槽強度的影響更顯著。③ 南支槽偏強年從云南南部到華南一帶降水量較常年偏多,其中廣東、湖南和江西南部至福建一帶降水量較常年偏多30 mm以上;南支槽偏弱年西南至華南一帶降水較常年偏少,其中廣東、廣西東部降水量較常年偏少30 mm以上。④ 南支槽偏強年時存在兩支異常水汽輸送路徑,一支為從赤道以北至10°N,從60°E延伸至菲律賓附近的異常強西風水汽輸送帶;另一支位于20°N附近,由南支槽的槽前西南氣流將孟加拉灣地區水汽輸送到我國境內,是冬季西南與華南的主要水汽通道。

    Abstract:

    Based on the ERA-Interim reanalysis data, an intensity index of the South Branch Trough (SBT) is defined by the result of the objective identification method of the SBT. The relationships between the interannual variations of the SBT intensity and the precipitation, atmospheric circulation, and water vapour transport during 1980-2019 are investigated in this study. The results show: (1) The intensity index of the SBT mainly characterizes interannual variations with the quasi-4-year cycle. (2) The sea surface temperature in the central equatorial Pacific is an important factor affecting the interannual variations of the SBT, which has a significant negative correlation with the intensity of the SBT, especially the SST over the Nino 3 region. (3) When the intensity of the SBT is stronger, the precipitation from southern Yunnan to South China is more than normal, especially in Guangdong, southern Hunan, southern Jiangxi, and southern Fujian, which is 30 mm more than normal. When the intensity of SBT is weaker, the precipitation in Southwest China to South China is less than normal. In particular, the precipitation in central Guangdong and Guangxi is over 30 mm less than normal. (4) There are two water vapour transport paths with strong intensity of SBT. One is the water vapour conveying belt with anomalously strong westerly wind extending from the north of the equator to 10°N and 60°E to the Philippines. The other branch is located near 20°N, and the southwest airflow in front of the SBT transports the water vapour from the Bay of Bengal area to China, which is the main water vapour channel of Southwest and South China in winter.

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楊永宏,吳樹炎,黃威,陶威.基于客觀識別的冬季南支槽強度年際變化及其與南方降水的關聯性[J].氣象科技,2023,51(4):480~488

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  • 收稿日期:2022-04-17
  • 定稿日期:2023-02-21
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  • 在線發布日期: 2023-08-29
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