基于隨機森林的湖北雪密度預測模型及其在雪壓分析中的應用
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2022年度中國氣象局決策氣象服務專題研究項目(JCZX202206)、湖北省氣象局科技發展基金重點項目(2022Z05)資助


Snow Density Prediction Model in Hubei Based on Random Forest and Its Application in Snow Pressure Analysis
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    摘要:

    雪密度、雪壓等積雪參數資料的缺乏是南方地區雪災精細化防御研究的難點之一,通過歷史地面積雪氣象觀測資料來反演測站及周邊的雪密度,是對現有積雪監測資料的有益補充。本文利用湖北省76站的逐日氣象觀測資料,分析并選取了積雪期的積雪日數、積雪深度、氣溫、日照等8個影響雪密度的自變量因子,構建了雪密度的隨機森林回歸(RF)模型,并通過RF模型反演數據,分析了湖北省雪密度和雪壓分布情況。結果表明:①雪密度RF模型預測的均方根誤差為0.04 g/cm3左右,可以用于湖北省雪密度資料反演。②湖北省平均雪密度在0.14~0.20 g/cm3之間,從中部以0.17 g/cm3為界分為東西兩個區,東部區雪密度較大。③湖北省近60年來最大雪壓值在1.3~6.7 g/cm2之間,不同重現期最大雪壓分布存在鄂西北和鄂東兩個高值區,且鄂東區的中北部基本雪壓值更大?!糐P〗

    Abstract:

    The lack of snow parameters such as snow density and snow pressure is one of the difficulties in the study of snow disaster prevention in the Southern China. It is a helpful supplement to the existing snow monitoring data to invert the snow density of the station and its surroundings through historical ground snow meteorological observation data. Based on the daily meteorological observation data of 76 stations in Hubei Province, this paper analyzes and selects eight independent variable factors affecting snow density, such as the number of snow days, snow depth, air temperature and sunshine, and constructs a Random Forest (RF) regression model of snow density. Through the inversion data of the RF model, the distributions of snow density and snow pressure in Hubei Province are analyzed. The results show that: (1) The root mean square error predicted by the snow density RF model is about 0.04 g/cm3, which can be used for the inversion of snow density data in Hubei Province. (2) The average snow density in Hubei Province is between 0.14 and 0.20 g/cm3, and is divided into east and west regions based on the value of 0.17 g/cm3, with the larger snow density in the eastern region. (3) The maximum snow pressure in Hubei Province in recent 60 years is between 1.3 and 6.7 g/cm2. The distributions of maximum snow pressure in different return periods have two high-value areas in northwest and east of Hubei Province, and the basic snow pressure value in the northcentral part of the east of Hubei Province is greater.

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魏華兵,周月華,史瑞琴,溫泉沛.基于隨機森林的湖北雪密度預測模型及其在雪壓分析中的應用[J].氣象科技,2023,51(4):473~479

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  • 收稿日期:2022-07-05
  • 定稿日期:2023-02-03
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  • 在線發布日期: 2023-08-29
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