安徽省油菜越冬期低溫凍害時空分布特征及風險評估
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國家重點研發計劃項目(2018YFD0300905)、科技助力經濟2020重點專項(KJZLJJ202002)資助


Time and Space Distribution Characteristics and Risk Assessment of Rape Low-Temperature Freezing Damage in Anhui Province
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    摘要:

    低溫凍害特征及其風險評估可為油菜種植布局等決策提供理論依據。利用1960—2017年安徽省66個國家地面氣象觀測站逐日氣象數據,以油菜越冬期低溫強度將凍害等級劃分為輕、中、重3級凍害并構建低溫風險指數。采用ArcGIS 9.3工具、及Morlet小波分析法等分析近57 a安徽省油菜越冬期低溫凍害的多時間尺度變化特征,并進行越冬期低溫凍害風險區劃。結果表明:①安徽省油菜越冬期不同等級低溫凍害空間分布特征基本相似,呈現由南到北的帶狀分布特征,年平均發生總凍害的高值區多集中在淮北地區、沿淮地區和大別山區。②近57 a來油菜越冬期輕度、中度、重度及總凍害分別以1.0 d/10a、1.0 d/10a、1.1 d/10a和3.2 d/10a的傾向率呈現明顯的下降趨勢,表明全球氣候變暖在一定程度上有利于油菜安全越冬。③輕度風險區位于霍山—六安—合肥—全椒以南地區,該區緯度較低,油菜越冬期低溫凍害風險指數較小,適宜大面積種植油菜。研究結論可作為安徽省油菜種植布局和氣象災害防御對策制定的依據。

    Abstract:

    Lowtemperature frozen characteristics and their risk assessment can provide the theoretical basis for decision-making of rape planting layout. This article uses daily weather data from 66 national ground meteorological stations in Anhui Province from 1960 to 2017. Depending on the low-temperature strength, the lowtemperature freezing damage is divided into three levels: light, medium and heavy damage, and builds a low-temperature risk index. Matlab, ArcGIS 9.3 and wavelet analysis methods have been applied to analyze the multitime scale variation characteristics of rape low-temperature freezing damage in Anhui Province for nearly 57 years. Low-temperature freezing risk zoning of rape is carried out. The results show that: (1) The distribution characteristics of different levels of low-temperature freezing damage are basically similar during the wintering of rape in Anhui Province, rendering strip distribution characteristics from south to north. High-value areas for average annual total freezing damage occur in the Huaibei area, along the Huaihe area and the Dabie mountain area. (2) Mild, moderate, severe, and total freezing damages show a significant decline; the tendency rates are 1.0, 1.0, 1.1 and 3.2 days per 10 years, respectively, during the wintering of rape in nearly 57 years, which indicates that global warming is good for rape safety in a certain extent. (3) The light-weight risk area is located in the southern region of the Huoshan-Liu’an-Hefei-Quanjiao area, which has a lower latitude, and smaller low-temperature freezing risk index, and is suitable for large-scale planting. The study conclusions can be used as a basis for the development of rape planting layout and meteorological disaster defence countermeasures.

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謝金花,黃琴琴,尚秉琛.安徽省油菜越冬期低溫凍害時空分布特征及風險評估[J].氣象科技,2023,51(2):287~294

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  • 收稿日期:2022-04-11
  • 定稿日期:2023-02-02
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  • 在線發布日期: 2023-04-27
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