廣西寒露風初日變化特征以及對雙季晚稻抽穗安全期的影響
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中國氣象局預報員專項(CMAYBY2019096)、廣西科技重點研發計劃項目(AB17195037)、廣西氣象科研面上項目(桂氣科2022M06、桂氣科2022M007)共同資助


Characteristics of First Day Variation of “Cold Dew Wind” in Guangxi and Its Influence on Safe Heading Period of Double Cropping Late Rice
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    基于廣西1961—2020年88個氣象站觀測資料,分析寒露風初日時空變化特征、50%及80%保證率初日,〖JP2〗并結合水稻發育期資料對廣西雙季晚稻抽穗安全期進行分析。結果顯示:①在時間上,廣西寒露風初日以0.23 d/10a(P<0.05)的速率呈微弱提前趨勢,呈不對稱的“W”形特征;在空間上,廣西寒露風初日呈高緯度早、低緯度晚,山區早、平地晚的“階梯式”分布特征。②廣西寒露風初日存在22年、12年、8年、3年4個周期變化,其中22年是廣西寒露風初日的主要周期,未發生明顯突變。③廣西雙季晚稻平均齊穗期以0.22 d/10a(P<0.05)的速率推遲,抽穗揚花期遭遇寒露風影響頻率為21.9%。建議適當調整晚稻播種期,使其齊穗期提早3~7 d。桂中北地區應謹慎推廣晚稻中晚熟品種,以避免受突發性的寒露風災害影響。

    Abstract:

    Based on the observation data of 88 meteorological stations in Guangxi from 1961 to 2020, the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the first day of cold dew wind, the first day of 50% and 80% guarantee rates, and the safe heading period of double cropping late rice in Guangxi are analyzed in combination with the data of rice development period. The results show that: (1) In terms of time, the first day of the cold dew wind in Guangxi shows a slight advance trend at a rate of 0.23 days per 10 years (P<0.05), showing an asymmetric W-shaped feature; in space, the first day of cold dew wind in Guangxi is characterized by a “ladder” distribution: early at high latitudes, late at low latitudes, early in mountainous areas and late on flat lands. (2) The first day of cold dew wind in Guangxi has four cycles of 22 years, 12 years, 8 years and 3 years, of which 22 years is the main cycle of the first day of cold dew wind in Guangxi, without obvious mutation. (3) The average full heading stage of double cropping late rice in Guangxi is delayed at a rate of 0.22 days per 10 years (P<0.05), and the frequency of encountering cold dew wind during heading and flowering is 21.9%. It is suggested that the sowing date of late rice should be adjusted appropriately to make its full heading date 3 to 7 days earlier. In order to avoid being affected by the sudden cold dew wind disaster, the middle late maturing varieties of late rice should be popularized carefully in the central and northern regions of Guangxi.

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鄒麗霞,黃祎萱,唐廣田,黃國靚,莫雁雯.廣西寒露風初日變化特征以及對雙季晚稻抽穗安全期的影響[J].氣象科技,2023,51(2):279~286

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  • 收稿日期:2022-02-21
  • 定稿日期:2023-01-06
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  • 在線發布日期: 2023-04-27
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