山東冰雹時空分布特征與分類預報指標研究
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國家重點研發計劃項目(2018YFC1506104)、山東省自然科學基金項目(ZR2020MD053)、山東省氣象局重點課題(SDCXTD20214)、日照市氣象局創新團隊重點課題(2022rzqxz01)共同資助


Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Hails in Shandong Province and Classified Forecast Indexes
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    摘要:

    利用冰雹實況資料、高空探測資料、地面觀測資料和EC細網格數值預報資料,統計分析了2012—2021年79次對山東造成較大災害的冰雹過程的時空分布特征,總結了不同區域、不同大小以及關鍵月份降雹的關鍵環境參量特征及閾值。結果表明:①山東降雹具有明顯的時空分布特征,降雹主要出現在魯中地區和魯北地區;降雹日數年際變化較大,最多年份可達14 d,最少僅為5 d;降雹主要出現在春末夏初,占全年降雹日數的65%;14:00—20:00是冰雹高發時段,占全天降雹的63.3%。②魯中地區年平均出現大冰雹的次數最多,但半島地區出現大冰雹的概率更大;大冰雹主要出現在5—6月,占全年大冰雹日數的68.6%。③山東降雹具有較大的對流有效位能、中等及以上強度的深層(0~6 km)垂直風切變、顯著的條件不穩定層結和適宜的特征層高度/厚度。④不同區域、不同大小以及關鍵月份的物理參量的特征和潛勢預報閾值都有一定的差別,主要體現在內陸地區、6月降雹、大冰雹較沿海地區、5月降雹、小冰雹的對流有效位能明顯偏大、干暖蓋指數偏小、深層垂直切變有所增大、抬升凝結高度略偏高、-20~0 ℃層的厚度偏薄。

    Abstract:

    The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of 79 hail processes causing major disasters in 2012-2021 are statistically analyzed by using hail data, radiosonde observation data, ground observation data and EC thin grid data, the characteristics and thresholds of key environmental parameters of hails in different regions, sizes and months are summarized. The results show that: (1) Hails in Shandong have obvious spatial and temporal distribution characteristics, and mainly appear in central and north Shandong. The number of hail days varies greatly from year to year, with a maximum of 14 days and a minimum of 5 days. Hails mainly occur in late spring and early summer, accounting for 65% of hail days in the year and 65% of hail days in the year. Hails frequently occur from 14:00 to 20:00, accounting for 63.3% of the total hail. (2) The average annual occurrence frequency of large hails is the most in central Shandong Province, but the probability of large hails is greater in the peninsula region. Large hails mainly appear in May and June, accounting for 68.6% of the annual number of large hail days. (3) Hails in Shandong have large convective effective potential energy, deep (0 to 6 km) vertical wind shear with medium or above intensity, significant conditional unstable stratification and suitable characteristic layer height/thickness. (4) Different regions, different sizes and key months have certain differences in the characteristics of physical parameters and potential prediction thresholds. Compared with hail falling in coastal areas and in inland areas, hail falling in June and May, large and small hails, it is mainly reflected in the obvious larger convective effective potential energy, smaller dry and warm cap index, greater deep vertical shear, slightly higher lifting condensation height, and thinner thickness of -20 ℃ to 0 ℃ layer.

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于懷征,龔佃利,朱秀紅,吳炫,崔廣署,劉晨,王鳳梅.山東冰雹時空分布特征與分類預報指標研究[J].氣象科技,2023,51(2):254~261

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  • 收稿日期:2022-03-26
  • 定稿日期:2023-02-02
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  • 在線發布日期: 2023-04-27
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