長江流域30°N沿線晝夜及冬夏降水特征差異分析
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湖北省氣象科技發展基金(2021Y03;2022Y26;2022Y06)、沙漠氣象研究基金(Sqj2011001)共同資助


Difference Analysis of Day-Night and Winter-Summer Precipitation Characteristics along 30°N in Yangtze River Basin
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    摘要:

    利用1996—2020年逐時降水資料,統計分析長江流域30°N沿線不同地形階梯代表區晝、夜、冬、夏降水的頻率、雨量、類條件概率密度等特征,通過研究晝夜比、冬夏比隨經度的分布探討不同高度地形對降水的影響。主要結論如下:①30°N沿線四川盆地內降水量和頻率的夜晝比向東遞減,雅安附近是夜雨強中心區,夜雨現象在四川盆地東側山地108°E以東趨于消失;盆地內強降水比弱降水更易發生于夜間。②30°N沿線冬雨與夏雨存在較大差異,雨量上冬雨小、夏雨大;結構上冬雨弱、夏雨強;降水頻次上存在地域差異,第二地形階梯冬雨少、夏雨多,而第三地形階梯反之;冬雨受大地形影響更為明顯。③根據降水第1類類條件概率密度(CCPD1)冬夏比及冬雨CCPD1距平百分比聚類分析,可將8個分區分為3類,該分類與地理位置、地形階梯有良好的對應關系。④夏雨受局地地形影響顯著,將夏雨CCPD1距平百分比高于10%的峰(低于-10%的谷)值區定義為夏雨強(弱)潛力區,則各分區強、弱潛力區表現各異。江漢平原南部、鄱陽湖以北發生短時強降水潛力較大,雅安出現極端短時強降水潛力大(強潛力區≥61 mm);冬雨強潛力區(CCPD1距平百分比高于50%的峰值區)位于第三地形階梯上的VII、VIII、IX分區(潛力值1~20 mm),而該降水區間也是雅安和盆地中央的弱潛力區(CCPD1距平百分比低于-50%的谷值區)。

    Abstract:

    Based on the hourly rainfall data, the frequency, rainfall and class-conditional probability density of day and night, winter and summer rainfall in different terrain ladder representative districts along the 30°N are statistically analyzed. The influence of different terrain heights with longitude on rainfall is explored by studying the distribution of day-night and winter-sumer ratios of rainfall. The results show that: (1) Along the 30°N, the rainfall and frequency ratio of night to day decreases eastward in the Sichuan Basin. Ya’an is the highvalue centre of strong night rainfall. The phenomenon of night rainfall tends to disappear to the east of 108°E mountain in the east of the Sichuan Basin. Night rainfall is more likely to occur in strong precipitation in the basin than in weak precipitation. (2) There is a big difference between winter and summer rains along the 30°N line. Winter rainfall is small, and summer rainfall is large; structurally, the rain is weak in winter and strong in summer; there are regional differences in frequency. The second topographic step has less winter and more summer rains, while the third topographic step in opposite. Winter rains is more obviously affected by large terrain. (3) According to the cluster analysis of the first kind of Class-Conditional Probability Density 1 (CCPD1) ratio of winter to summer and CCPD1 anomaly percentage of winter rains, the eight sub-regions can be divided into three categories, which have a good corresponding relationship with geographical location and terrain steps. (4) Summer rainfall is significantly affected by local terrain. The peak value area of anomaly percentage of the summer rain CCPD1 higher than 10% ( or valley of lower than -10%) is defined as the summer rain strong (weak) potential area, and the strong and weak potential areas are different. There is a great potential for short-term heavy precipitation in the south of Jianghan Plain and north of Poyang Lake, and there is a great potential for extreme short-term heavy precipitation in Ya’an (the strong potential area ≥ 61 mm). The strong potential area of winter rainfall (the peak area where the anomaly percentage of CCPD1 is higher than 50%) is located in divisions Ⅶ, Ⅷ and Ⅸ on the third topographic step (the potential value is 1 to 20 mm). Still, the precipitation range of 1 to 20 mm is a weak potential area (valley area where anomaly percentage of CCPD1 is lower than -50%) in Ya’an and the basin centre.

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鄧雯,沈鐵元,向怡衡,廖移山.長江流域30°N沿線晝夜及冬夏降水特征差異分析[J].氣象科技,2023,51(1):75~84

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  • 收稿日期:2022-01-10
  • 定稿日期:2022-08-22
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  • 在線發布日期: 2023-03-03
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