基于層次分析法的朔黃鐵路暴雨災害風險評估
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河北省重點研發計劃項目“高速公路復雜路面高分辨率惡劣天氣精準預警技術研究”(19275413D)河北省氣象局面上項目(19ky26)共同資助


Risk Zoning of Rainstorm Disaster along Shuohuang Railway Based on Meteorological Geography Method
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    摘要:

    選取2016—2020年朔黃鐵路沿線40套自動氣象站降水資料,結合周邊國家站區域站近15年資料、行政區縣地理信息、社會經濟信息等,基于ArcGis技術,采用層次分析法等方法,從暴雨災害的致災因子危險性、孕災環境敏感性、承災體易損性3類因子構建了朔黃鐵路暴雨災害風險區劃模型,并繪制了朔黃鐵路暴雨災害綜合風險區劃圖。結果表明:朔黃鐵路沿線暴雨災害風險劃分為高、次高、中、低4個等級,整體呈東部高于西部;4個高風險段與朔黃沿線各工務段收集的暴雨高發信息基本一致,該研究成果對于朔黃鐵路暴雨災害預報預警具有較好的參考作用。

    Abstract:

    Based on the precipitation data of automatic weather stations along Shuohuang Railway from 2016 to 2020, combined with the geographical information and socioeconomic information of administrative districts and counties, the risk zoning model of Shuohuang Railway rainstorm disasters is constructed by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), expert scoring method and weighted comprehensive evaluation method from four factors: the risk of rainstorm disaster, the sensitivity of disaster pregnant environment, the vulnerability of bearing body and the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation. The comprehensive risk zoning map of the rainstorm disaster on the Shuohuang Railway is drawn. The results show that: the rainstorm disaster risk along the Shuohuang Railway is divided into four grades: high, secondary high, medium and low, and the risk in the East is higher than that in the West. The four high-risk sections are basically consistent with the high-frequency rainstorm information collected in each work section along the Shuohuang Railway. The results will play a good role in decision-making on risk prevention.

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王潔,張中杰,曲曉黎,張娣,張金滿.基于層次分析法的朔黃鐵路暴雨災害風險評估[J].氣象科技,2022,50(6):870~877

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  • 收稿日期:2021-09-08
  • 定稿日期:2022-08-16
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  • 在線發布日期: 2022-12-30
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