冬奧張家口賽區降雪天氣分型及其預報概念模型研究
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科技部冬奧科技專項“冬奧賽場定點氣象要素客觀預報技術研究及應用 ”(2018YFF0300104)資助


Research on Snowfall Weather and Forecast Concept Model in Zhangjiakou Competition Area of 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic Games
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    摘要:

    利用冬奧張家口賽區云頂和古楊樹兩個賽場的地面加密站網觀測資料和高空探測資料、ERA5的0.25°×0.25°高分辨率再分析資料,從降雪時空分布特征、高低空環流形勢配置等對2019年和2020年冬季(11月至次年2月)張家口賽區的降雪過程進行天氣學統計分析。結果表明:降雪天氣的環流背景主要歸納為3個類型,分別是低渦氣旋型、冷鋒型和西北氣流型。不同天氣模型下降雪量時空分布具有典型特點,低渦氣旋型過程平均降雪量最大,降雪持續時間長,云頂賽場比古楊樹賽場降雪量多16.9%;冷鋒型過程平均降雪量次之,云頂賽場比古楊樹賽場降雪量多44.4%;西北氣流型過程平均降雪量最少,持續時間短,但是兩個賽場差異最大,云頂賽場比古楊樹賽場降雪量多140%。

    Abstract:

    Based on the AWS (Automatic Weather Stations) data, the sounding data of two arenas (Genting Snow Park and Guyangshu Cluster) in the Zhangjiakou competition area of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympic Games, and the ECMWF ERA5 global 0.25°×0.25° reanalysis data in the winter of 2019 and 2020 (November to next February), the characteristics of the temporal and spatial distribution of snowfall and the circulation patterns in the Zhangjiakou competition area are analyzed. This study isolates the distinct synoptic types of snowfall into three patterns: low vortex-cyclone, cold front, and northwest airflow. The amount and duration of snowfall are distinct from one synoptic pattern to another. The low vortex-cyclone pattern causes the heaviest snowfall and the longest duration among the three patterns. The snowfall amount in Genting Snow Park is 16.9% larger than that in Guyangshu Cluster. The mean snowfall amount caused by the cold front pattern takes second place. Under this condition, the snowfall amount in Genting Snow Park is 44.4% larger than that in Guyangshu Cluster. The northwest airflow pattern results in the least snowfall amount and shortest duration, but the largest difference between the two clusters is that the snowfall amount in Genting Snow Park is 140% larger than that in Guyangshu Cluster.

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馬洪波,陳長勝,馬梁臣,楊玥,李江波.冬奧張家口賽區降雪天氣分型及其預報概念模型研究[J].氣象科技,2022,50(6):822~829

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  • 收稿日期:2021-11-28
  • 定稿日期:2022-09-07
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  • 在線發布日期: 2022-12-30
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