山東區域性高溫的變化特征及其對增暖的響應
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山東省氣象局科研項目(2021SDYD06)資助


Variation Characteristics of Regional High-Temperature in Shandong and Its Response to Warming
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    摘要:

    基于區域性高溫天氣過程等級劃分標準,利用逐日最高氣溫資料,客觀識別山東省區域性高溫事件,并分析其時空分布和變化特征及其對氣候增暖的響應。結果表明:1961—2020年山東省共發生了區域性高溫154次,平均每年約2.6次,主要出現在6—7月;西部地區多,山區和沿海地區少;年際和年代際變化明顯,發生了減少到增多的趨勢變化,20世紀60年代至80年代顯著減少,90年代中期之后開始增多,21世紀明顯增多,持續時間、影響范圍和過程強度明顯增加增強。區域性高溫對氣候增暖響應顯著,隨著增暖加劇,年最晚出現時間明顯推遲,頻次也更多,持續時間更長,影響范圍更大,強度更強,且更長更強的區域性高溫事件也更容易發生。

    Abstract:

    Based on the regional high-temperature process’s classification standards and by using the daily maximum temperature data, the regional high-temperature events in Shandong Province are objectively identified. The spatio-temporal distribution and variation characteristics of regional high-temperature events and their response to climate warming are also analyzed. The results show that there are 154 regional high-temperature events in Shandong Province from 1961 to 2020, with an average of about 2.6 times per year. These events, in general, occur from June to July. Over the space, regional high-temperature events are mainly distributed in the western region of Shandong Province and less in the mountainous and coastal areas. There are obvious inter-annual and inter-decadal changes in the occurence frequence of regional high-temperature events, with a shift from a downtrend to an uptrend. The occurence frequence of regional high-temperature events decrease significantly from the 1960s to the 1980s and increase after the mid-1990s, with a significant increase in the 21st century. These events’ duration, region and intensity also increase and enhance significantly in the 21st century. Regional high-temperature events have a significant response to climate warming. With the intensification of warming, the annual latest occurrence time of regional high temperature is obviously delayed. Regional hightemperature events become more frequent, longer and stronger, with a larger influence range. And the longer and stronger regional high-temperature events are also more likely.

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鄒瑾,李君,高理,孔祥寧.山東區域性高溫的變化特征及其對增暖的響應[J].氣象科技,2022,50(6):802~811

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  • 收稿日期:2022-01-12
  • 定稿日期:2022-07-08
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  • 在線發布日期: 2022-12-30
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