GRAPES-TYM模式對我國東部近海海霧預報性能評估
作者:
作者單位:

作者簡介:

通訊作者:

中圖分類號:

基金項目:

國家重點研發計劃(2019YFC1510102)、青島市氣象局海霧預報預警技術團隊、山東省氣象局臺風與海洋氣象創新團隊資助


Assessment of Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System-Typhoon Model (GRAPES-TYM) for Sea Fog Prediction over Eastern China Seas
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 圖/表
  • |
  • 訪問統計
  • |
  • 參考文獻
  • |
  • 相似文獻
  • |
  • 引證文獻
  • |
  • 資源附件
  • |
  • 文章評論
    摘要:

    基于2020年上半年我國東部近海站點觀測資料和葵花8衛星反演海霧產品對我國自主研發的GRAPES-TYM模式進行了海霧預報性能評估。點、面檢驗結果表明:模式48 h和72 h TS分別為0.40和0.36,黃海海霧預報性能最優,34°~37°N海域內大部分站點TS高于0.50。黃海海霧落區預報檢驗顯示均壓場形勢下預報最準確,平均臨界成功指數為0.35;氣旋后部海霧多空報。2 m相對濕度預報偏差具有局地性特征,相對濕度低估的站海霧預報擊中率、TS相對低,反之亦然。另外,模式對成霧相關氣象要素預報誤差相對小且對成霧有利時海霧預報基本正確;模式預報風向較實際風向偏東南,易出現冷偏差和濕偏差,虛假的有利溫濕條件導致海霧空報。

    Abstract:

    Based on stational observations and retrieved sea fog products by the Kuihua-8 satellite from January to June 2020, this paper have evaluated the performance of the independent researched and developed GRAPES-TYM model to forecast sea fogs over the Eastern China Seas. Results indicate that sea fog forecasting for the Eastern China Seas by GRAPES-TYM is relatively promising, for TS of 48 h and 72 h is 0.40 and 0.36, respectively. Especially the model shows the best ability to predict the Yellow Sea sea fogs with TS of most stations in the sea area between 34°N and 37°N higher than 0.50. The further assessment indicates that the fog area forecast under the uniformed pressure field is more accurate, with an average CSI of 0.35. The model often gives false alarms when under the back of the cyclone. It appears that deviations between observed and forecasted surface air temperature and relative humidity are relative to locality. The hit rate and TS are lower with underestimating relative humidity, and vice versa. Our results also suggest that for successful cases, the model accurately captures the near-surface meteorological conditions, which are favourable for fog formation. In contrast, the model shows a large error in near-surface relative humidity and temperature for false alarm cases compared to successful cases. The predicted near-surface wind direction is often in the southeast of the actual wind direction, which is prone to introduce cold bias and overprediction of relative humidity. False favourable temperature and humidity conditions lead to false sea fog alarms.

    參考文獻
    相似文獻
    引證文獻
引用本文

黃彬,高榮珍,時曉曚. GRAPES-TYM模式對我國東部近海海霧預報性能評估[J].氣象科技,2022,50(6):783~792

復制
分享
文章指標
  • 點擊次數:
  • 下載次數:
  • HTML閱讀次數:
  • 引用次數:
歷史
  • 收稿日期:2021-12-01
  • 定稿日期:2022-08-22
  • 錄用日期:
  • 在線發布日期: 2022-12-30
  • 出版日期:
您是第位訪問者
技術支持:北京勤云科技發展有限公司
午夜欧美大片免费观看,欧美激情综合五月色丁香,亚洲日本在线视频观看,午夜精品福利在线
>