動態最優網格降水消空技術
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2021年中國氣象局創新發展專項(CXFZ2021Z034-97)、寧夏回族自治區重點研發計劃項目(2021BEG03021)共同資助


Dynamic Optimal Technology for Eliminating False Positive Prediction of Grid Precipitation
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    摘要:

    為了提高5 km分辨率的網格降水預報準確率,針對數值模式網格降水預報產品中尚存在許多降水空報的現象,基于網格降水實況,應用動態建模和機器訓練擇優技術,借助新檢驗參數歸一化后的單調性、新降水TS公式在計算上的便利性,建立了兩種動態最優降水消空技術方案,開展網格降水消空研究。研究表明,兩步法抑制了消空閾值偏大現象,歸一化法使閾值優選更加直接。用這兩種方法,晴雨準確率全部上升,其中,ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts)提高最大(2.39%~4.76%);降水TS評分,ECMWF提高最大,白天提高多(2.98%~3.64%),夜間提高少(1.61%~1.78%),但CMA-SH9(中國氣象局上海數值預報模式系統)和CMA-BJ(中國氣象局北京快速更新循環數值預報系統)則出現下降。歸一化法在白天使晴雨準確率提高最多。分析表明,經過消空處理后,雨空百分率下降數值明顯大于雨漏百分率增加數值,從而使空報率出現大幅下降,晴雨準確率也升高明顯。

    Abstract:

    In order to improve the accuracy of grid precipitation forecast, aiming at the phenomenon that there are still much empty precipitation forecasts in the numerical model grid precipitation forecast, based on the live grid precipitation, applying the dynamic modelling and machine training, with the monotonicity of normalized new test parameters, and the computational convenience of the new precipitation TS scoring formula, the dynamic optimal elimination of grid-by-grid precipitation is researched. The research show that the empty precipitation threshold is suppressed in the two-step method, and the process of threshold training selection is more direct in the normalized method. With these two methods, the rain or shine accuracy is all increased. Among them, ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) increases by 2.39%-4.76%; the TS score of ECMWF improves the most, increasing 2.98%-3.64% during the day and increasing 1.61%-1.78% at night. However, the TS scores in CMA-SH9 and CMA-BJ decline. The normalized method increases the clear/rain forecast accuracy the most during the day. The analysis shows that the drop in the false alarm rate is significantly greater than the missing forecast rate. As a result, the FAR drops significantly, and the clear/rain forecast accuracy also increases significantly.

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張成軍,趙聲蓉,任小芳,張亞剛,蘇洋.動態最優網格降水消空技術[J].氣象科技,2022,50(5):677~685

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  • 收稿日期:2021-10-28
  • 定稿日期:2022-06-17
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  • 在線發布日期: 2022-10-28
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