公里級CMA_MESO模式FSS評分技術研究
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科技部高分辨率模式評估方法研究與預報評估系統建設項目(2018YFC1507605)資助


Fraction Skill Score Verification Technology for Kilometer-Level CMA_MESO Model
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    摘要:

    本文研究計算CMA_MESO模式預報降水FSS(Fractions Skill Score)評分時,當其水平分辨率與觀測降水不一致時,采取兩種匹配方式統一分辨率,分析這兩種方式得到的FSS評分結果是否有差異。針對3 km分辨率CMA_MESO模式6 h累積降水,選取5 km分辨率的觀測降水,分別采取預報降水匹配觀測降水分辨率,以及觀測降水匹配預報降水分辨率兩種方式,選擇4種鄰域尺度:5、25、51和105 km;4種降水閾值:0.1、4、13和25 mm,得到兩組不同預報時效的FSS評分。通過分析發現:兩組FSS評分結果沒有顯著差異。研究結果表明,當CMA_MESO模式預報降水水平分辨率與觀測降水不一致時,可以將預報降水匹配到觀測降水格點場,也可以將觀測降水匹配到預報降水格點場,兩種匹配方式對FSS評分結果沒有影響。

    Abstract:

    The purpose of this paper is to analyze whether the FSS(Fraction Skill Score) score results obtained by the two methods are different when the forecast precipitation FSS is calculated for the CMA_MESO model, its horizontal resolution is inconsistent with the observed precipitation, two matching methods are adopted to unify the resolution. In this paper, the forecast data are the 6-hour cumulative precipitation of the 3 km resolution CMA_MESO model, and the observed data is 5 km resolution observed precipitation. The two methods of forecast precipitation matching observed precipitation resolution and observed precipitation matching forecast precipitation resolution are adopted, respectively. Four neighbourhood scales are selected: 5 km, 25 km, 51 km and 105 km; and four precipitation thresholds are selected: 0.1 mm, 4 mm, 13 mm and 25 mm. Two groups of FSS scores with different prediction times are obtained. Through analysis, it is found that there is no significant difference in FSS score between the two groups. The results show that when the horizontal resolution of the prediction precipitation for the CMA_MESO model is inconsistent with the observed precipitation, the predicted precipitation can be matched to the observation grid field, and the observation can also be matched to the model grid field. The two methods do not affect the FSS score results.

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劉志麗,Jimy Dudhia,陳靜,齊倩倩.公里級CMA_MESO模式FSS評分技術研究[J].氣象科技,2022,50(5):660~669

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  • 收稿日期:2021-10-30
  • 定稿日期:2022-04-29
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  • 在線發布日期: 2022-10-28
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