云南探空儀換型溫度和位勢高度觀測數據對比分析
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云南省氣象局科研項目(YZ202112)資助


Comparative Analysis of Temperature and Geopotential Height Observation Data of Radiosonde Type Change in Yunnan
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    摘要:

    基于云南探空儀換型平行觀測期間各標準等壓面上的溫度和位勢高度觀測數據以及對應的ECMWF模式預報場數據,利用偏差、標準差、均方根誤差和相關系數等對新、舊探空儀觀測數據進行對比分析和評估。結果表明:新、舊探空儀觀測數據一致性較好,在100 hPa以下兩者溫度絕對偏差小于1.0 ℃,位勢高度絕對偏差小于30 gpm,100 hPa以上溫度和位勢高度最大絕對偏差分別為3.9 ℃和151.0 gpm。除高層個別等壓面外,新、舊探空儀觀測數據離散性基本一致或新探空儀離散性相對較小。新探空儀觀測數據與模式數據更為一致,在中高層表現更為明顯;相對于模式數據,新、舊探空儀溫度偏差分別集中在±0.7 ℃、±0.9 ℃左右,最大均方根誤差分別為3.0 ℃、4.5 ℃,平均相關系數分別約為0.78、0.73;新、舊探空儀位勢高度最大偏差分別為28.5 gpm、130.9 gpm,最大均方根誤差分別為87.6 gpm、136.9 gpm,平均相關系數分別約為0.86、0.78。

    Abstract:

    Based on the observation data of temperature and geopotential heights at each mandatory level and the forecast field data of ECMWF during radiosonde type change parallel observation in Yunnan, the observation data of new and old radiosondes are comparatively analyzed and evaluated by using BIAS, standard deviations, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and related coefficients. The results show that the observation data of the new and old radiosonde are in good agreement. Below 100 hPa, the temperature absolute observation BIASs of new and old radiosondes are less than 1.0 ℃, and geopotential heights are less than 30 gpm. Above 100 hPa, the maximum absolute BIASs of temperature of new and old radiosondes are 3.9 ℃, and geopotential heights are 151.0 gpm. Except for individual levels in the lower and higher levels, the dispersions of observation data of new and old radiosondes are basically the same, or the dispersion of new radiosonde is relatively small. The new radiosonde observation data is more consistent with the model data and is more obvious at the middle and high levels. Compared with the model data, the BIASs of temperature of the new and old radiosondes are concentrated at about ±0.7 ℃ and ±0.9 ℃, the maximum RMSEs of them are about 3.0 ℃ and 4.5 ℃, and the average related coefficients are about 0.78 and 0.73, respectively. The maximum BIASs of geopotential heights of new and old radiosondes are 28.5 gpm and 130.9 gpm, the maximum RMSEs of them are about 87.6 gpm and 136.9 gpm, and the average related coefficients are about 0.86 and 0.78, respectively.

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楊國彬,舒康寧,李成鵬,周可,番聰聰,蔣銳.云南探空儀換型溫度和位勢高度觀測數據對比分析[J].氣象科技,2022,50(5):636~645

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  • 收稿日期:2021-11-15
  • 定稿日期:2022-04-29
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  • 在線發布日期: 2022-10-28
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