1990—2019年新疆不同等級風災變化特征
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“第二次青藏高原綜合科學考察研究”項目子專題(2019QZKK010206)資助


Variation Characteristics of Wind Disasters at Different Levels in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2019
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    風災對新疆農牧業生產造成極大危害。本研究以風災造成的倒塌房屋數、倒塌棚圈數、死亡人數、農作物受災面積、損壞大棚數、牲畜死亡數作為6大災情要素,運用比值權重和無量綱化線性求和方法構建表達風災事件強弱的災損指數,并采用百分位數法將風災事件的強度劃分為一般(1級)、較重(2級)、嚴重(3級)、特重(4級)4個等級。根據災損指數和災害等級,研究新疆風災的時空變化特征。結果表明:新疆風災集中于4—5月,南疆多于北疆,吐魯番盆地和塔里木盆地北部是風災的多發區和重發區;近30年風災年出現次數呈顯著的線性增加趨勢,年災損指數沒有表現出線性增加或減少的變化趨勢,其中1~4級風災的年際變化具有明顯的差異性;引發1~4級風災的極大風速閾值分別為12.9、13.7、14.1、15.0 m·s-1;超過12.9 m·s-1極大風速出現日數逐年增多,加之農牧業生產快速發展,導致風災年出現次數不斷增加。

    Abstract:

    The wind disaster has caused great harm to agricultural and animal husbandry production in Xinjiang. In this study, the number of collapsed houses, collapsed sheds, death toll, damaged sheds, livestock deaths, and the affected areas of crops are taken as the six major disaster factors to construct a disaster index that can comprehensively express the wind disaster intensity using the ratio weight and dimensionless linear summation method. Based on the percentile method, the intensity of the wind disaster events is divided into four levels: general (level 1), heavy (level 2), severe (level 3), and extra heavy (level 4). The disaster damage index and disaster level are used to study the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of wind disasters in Xinjiang. The results show that the wind disasters in Xinjiang are concentrated from April to May, more in the southern Xinjiang than in the northern Xinjiang, and the Turpan Basin and the northern Tarim Basin are the frequent and serious wind disaster areas in Xinjiang. The annual occurrence times of wind disasters in the recent 30 years show a significant linear increasing trend. The annual disaster loss index does not show a linear increasing or decreasing trend, among which the interannual variation of level 1 to 4 wind disasters has apparent differences. The maximum wind speed thresholds causing level 1 to 4 wind disasters are 12.9, 13.7, 14.1 and 15.0 m·s-1, respectively. The number of days when the maximum wind speed exceeds 12.9 m·s-1 increases year by year, coupled with the rapid development of agriculture and animal husbandry production, resulting in the continuous increase of the number of wind disasters in the year.

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王秀琴,王昀,王旭.1990—2019年新疆不同等級風災變化特征[J].氣象科技,2022,50(2):273~281

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  • 收稿日期:2021-04-09
  • 定稿日期:2021-11-12
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  • 在線發布日期: 2022-04-28
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