WT模型在山區高速公路風預報訂正中的應用
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河北省省級科技計劃“高速公路復雜路面高分辨率惡劣天氣精準預警技術研究”(19275413D)資助


Application of WT Model to Wind Forecasting and Correction of Expressway in Mountainous Area
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    摘要:

    利用2001—2020年河北省142個國家氣象站逐日最大風速資料分析了近20年河北風速變化背景。擇選2021年2—5月張家口、崇禮區域日極大風速13.9 m/s以上、日10 min平均風速最大值8 m/s以上的30個代表日,運用張承高速公路沿線崇禮國家氣象站、南窩鋪及場地2套區域氣象站、高家營及西灣子2套交通氣象站的逐分鐘風向風速觀測資料,ECMWF數值模式輸出的地面10 m風預報資料,以及3″分辨率的SRTM3地形資料,應用Meteodyn WT模型對張承高速公路沿線2個解域區域內的風預報結果進行了訂正和檢驗。結果表明:WT模型輸出風速與實際觀測風速相關系數可達0.6225并通過0.001顯著性檢驗,各代表站模擬的結果與實況的誤差80%以上在±2 m/s之間,地形開闊處誤差明顯減??;風向也表現出很高的一致性。說明應用WT模型對山區高速公路沿線風數值預報進行訂正是可行的,各地可結合本地地形數據以及相對穩定可靠的風的數值預報產品作為WT模型的驅動數據源,開展本地山區高速公路沿線風的訂正應用。

    Abstract:

    Using the maximum wind speed data of 142 national meteorological stations in Hebei Province from 2001 to 2020, this paper analyzes the background of wind speed change in Hebei Province in recent 20 years. We select 30 representative days from February to May in 2021 with a daily extreme wind speed over 13.9 m/s and the daily 10min average maximum wind speed over 8 m/s. Using the wind observation data of the meteorological stations in Chongli, Nanwopu, Changdi, Gaojiaying and Xiwanzi, the ground 10 m wind forecast data in the corresponding period of time output by ECMWF model, and the SRTM3 terrain data with 3″ resolution, the wind forecast results along the Zhangcheng Expressway in two regions of Chongli mountain area are simulated and verified by using the WT model. It is found that the correlation coefficient of wind speed of the WT model with actual observation reaches 0.6225 and passes the significance test. The error of more than 80% of the samples between simulation results and the actual situation is controlled within ±2 m/s. The error of the open terrain is obviously small. The wind direction also shows high consistency. It is proved that using the WT model to revise the wind numerical forecast along the mountain expressway is feasible. The local terrain data and the relatively stable and reliable wind numerical forecast products can be used to drive the WT model to carry out the revision application of winds along the highway in mountainous areas.

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曲曉黎,張杏敏,尤琦,張中杰,吳丹. WT模型在山區高速公路風預報訂正中的應用[J].氣象科技,2022,50(2):267~272

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  • 收稿日期:2021-07-12
  • 定稿日期:2021-12-23
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  • 在線發布日期: 2022-04-28
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