四川省降雨災情時空分布及其與雨量相關特征分析
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四川省氣象局科學技術研究開發課題基金項目(川氣課題2015-開發-15)、中國氣象局軟科學研究項目(2020ZZXM16)資助


Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Rainfall Disasters and Analysis of Its Rainfall-Related Characteristics in Sichuan Province
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    摘要:

    利用四川省2002—2020年降雨災情數據和156個國家氣象觀測站及5727個區域氣象觀測站逐日、逐小時降雨資料,分析四川省降雨災情時空分布及其與雨量特征的聯系。結果表明:四川省近年來降雨災情數量增長明顯,盆地西部、南部災情數量最多,密度最大,涼山州和盆地東北部死亡人數最多。災害主要發生在6—9月,災情分布有從盆地東北部、南部向西部發展,最后到東北部的趨勢。盆地在有大暴雨出現時災害發生可能性最大,致災頻率50%以上,暴雨致災頻率20%~40%;攀西地區暴雨出現時致災頻率20%~30%;川西高原暴雨天氣過程較少,大雨出現時致災頻率最大,為10%~30%。最大小時雨量盆地區在10 mm以下的災害主要發生在盆南和盆東北,盆西在各個雨量等級范圍內占比都較大,攀西地區災害主要集中在10~40 mm,川西高原為20 mm以下。最大日降雨量小于50 mm的災害主要分布在盆南,超過300 mm的主要發生在盆西北,50~100 mm以盆南和盆西南為主,攀西地區50~100 mm占比最大,川西高原為25~50 mm。

    Abstract:

    Based on the rainfall disaster data of Sichuan Province from 2002 to 2020, the daily and hourly rainfall data from 156 national meteorological stations and 5727 regional meteorological stations, the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall disasters and its relationship with rainfall characteristics in Sichuan Province are analyzed. The results show that the number of rainfall disasters in Sichuan Province has increased obviously in recent years. The number and density of rainfall disasters are the largest in the west and south of the Basin, and the number of deaths is the largest in Liangshan Prefecture and the northeast of the Basin. The disasters mainly occur from June to September and develop from the northeast, south to the west, and finally to the northeast of the Basin. The Basin has the highest possibility of a disaster occurring with torrential rains. The frequency of disaster occurrence is more than 50%, the frequency of disaster caused by heavy rain is 20%-40%, caused by heavy rain is 20%-30% in Panxi Region, caused by heavy rain is less in the western Sichuan Plateau, and caused by heavy rain is the highest, which is 10%-30%. The disasters with maximum hourly rainfall less than 10 mm in the basin area mainly occur in the south and northeast of the Basin. The disasters in the west of the Basin account for a larger proportion in each rainfall grade range. The disasters in the Panxi Region are mainly concentrated in 10-40 mm, and those in the western Sichuan Plateau are less than 20 mm. Disasters with maximum daily rainfall of less than 50 mm are mainly distributed in the south of the Basin, and those with maximum daily rainfall of more than 300 mm are mainly in the northwest of the Basin. Those with maximum daily rainfall of 50-100 mm are mainly in the south and southwest of the Basin. The proportion of 50-100 mm in the Panxi Region is the largest, and that in the western Sichuan Plateau is 25-50 mm.

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高潔,王明田,郭善云,汪麗,葉幫蘋.四川省降雨災情時空分布及其與雨量相關特征分析[J].氣象科技,2022,50(2):224~233

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  • 收稿日期:2021-06-24
  • 定稿日期:2021-12-17
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  • 在線發布日期: 2022-04-28
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