河北省太行山區核桃萌芽-幼果期溫度適宜度模型構建及應用
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國家林業公益性行業科研專項“太行山干旱退化山地旱澇災害生態調控技術研究”(編號201504408),邢臺市科技計劃項目“太行山區核桃低溫凍害氣象監測預警技術研究”(編號2019ZZ017)資助


Establishment and Application of Temperature Suitability Model of Walnut from Germination Stage to Young Fruit Stage in Taihang Mountain Area of Hebei Province
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    摘要:

    本文基于溫度因子對核桃萌芽-幼果期生長發育的影響,建立了日平均氣溫隸屬函數適宜度模型,將逐日最低氣溫、致死溫度和致災溫度及低于致災溫度持續時間引入溫度隸屬函數,建立了日最低氣溫隸屬函數適宜度模型,將上述適宜度按一定的權重組合構建了河北省太行山區核桃萌芽-幼果期溫度隸屬函數適宜度模型?;谀P陀嬎惴治霰砻鳎簝龊Πl生時,日平均氣溫適宜度一般在0.8以下,日最低氣溫適宜度、溫度綜合適宜度一般在0.6以下;以溫度綜合適宜度(S)進行凍害等級劃分,當0.5<S≤0.6時,判定為輕微凍害;當0.4<S≤0.5時,判定為輕度凍害;當0.1<S≤0.4時,判定為中度凍害;S≤0.1時判定為重度凍害。結合多年的調查資料和歷史氣象數據進行檢驗,基于溫度綜合適宜度判定凍害等級的準確率為84%。該適宜度模型較好地反映了溫度對核桃生長適宜程度的影響,模型結合智能網格數值預報進行業務應用,將為開展林果業凍害監測預警服務提供科技支撐。

    Abstract:

    Based on the influence of temperature on the growth and development of walnut from germination to young fruit stage, the membership function for the suitability model of daily average temperature is established. The daily minimum temperature, lethal temperature, disaster-causing temperature and the duration below the disaster-causing temperature were introduced into the temperature membership function, and the membership function for the suitability model of daily minimum temperature is established. According to a certain weight combination, the membership function for the suitability model of temperature from germination to young fruit stage of walnut in Taihang mountain area of Hebei Province is constructed. The calculation and analysis based on the model show that when freezing injury occurs, the daily average temperature suitability is generally below 0.8, and the daily minimum temperature suitability and comprehensive temperature suitability are generally below 0.6. The grade of freezing injury is divided according to the value of comprehensive suitability of temperature (S): 0.5<S≤0.6, slight freezing injury; 0.4<S≤0.5, mild freezing injury; 0.1<S≤0.4, moderate freezing injury; S≤0.1, severe freezing injury. Combined with many years of investigation and historical meteorological data, the accuracy of determining the frost damage level based on the comprehensive temperature suitability is 84%. The suitability model better reflects the influence of temperature on the suitability of walnut growth. Combined with the application of intelligent grid numerical prediction, the model will provide some services reference for early warning on freezing injury monitoring in the forest and fruit industry.

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趙玉兵,李武龍,陳利英,路漫漫,楊麗娜,孫東磊.河北省太行山區核桃萌芽-幼果期溫度適宜度模型構建及應用[J].氣象科技,2022,50(1):155~160

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  • 收稿日期:2021-03-09
  • 定稿日期:2021-11-03
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  • 在線發布日期: 2022-02-28
  • 出版日期: 2022-02-28
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