2010—2019年浙江暖季短時強降水特征分析
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浙江省預報員專項(2020YBY15)資助


Characteristics of ShortTerm Heavy Precipitation in Warm Season of Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2019
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    利用2010—2019年浙江省暖季(5—9月)1426個國家站和區域站小時雨量數據和NCEP 1°×1°逐日4次再分析資料,分析了浙江省暖季短時強降水、極端短時強降水時空分布特征及區域性短時強降水事件,結果表明:①近10年暖季短時強降水頻次呈增多趨勢,降水強度變化平穩; 8月(上旬)降水頻次最多, 9月(中旬)強度最強;16:00—19:00降水頻次最多,16:00、20:00強度最強;降水頻次、降水強度的空間分布與地形密切相關,易產生在沿海地區的山脈分布處。②近10年暖季極端短時強降水頻次年際變化大,但變化趨勢平穩;8月(下旬)降水頻次最多,9月(中旬、下旬)降水強度最強;16:00降水頻次最多,12:00降水強度最強;極端短時強降水頻次空間分布也與地形相關,沿海多于內陸。③區域性短時強降水事件可分為冷切型、暖切型、熱帶氣旋型、高空槽型、副高控制型5類。

    Abstract:

    By using hourly rainfall data of 1426 national stations and regional stations in the warm season (from May to September) in Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2019 and NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data four times a day, the short-term heavy rainfall, the extreme short-term heavy rainfall, regional short-term heavy rainfall events in the warm season are analyzed. The results show that: (1) In recent ten years, the interannual variation of short-term heavy precipitation frequency in the warm season showed an increasing trend; and the variation of precipitation intensity was stable. The precipitation frequency was the highest in early August. The intensity was the strongest in middle September. The precipitation frequency was the highest from 16:00 to 19:00, and the intensity was the highest at 16:00 and 20:00. The spatial distribution of short-term heavy rainfall frequency and intensity was closely related to the topography, and short-term heavy rains were prone to occur in the mountainous areas of coastal areas. (2) In recent ten years, the frequency of extreme short-term heavy precipitation in the warm season had great interannual variation. Still, the annual variation trend was stable. The precipitation frequency was the highest in late August, and the precipitation intensity was the highest in middle and late September, while the precipitation frequency at 16:00 was the highest. The precipitation intensity at 12:00 was the highest. The spatial distribution of extreme short-term strong precipitation frequency was also related to the topography, and the frequence in the coastal area was greater than in inland. (3) Regional short-term heavy precipitation events could be divided into cold shear, warm shear, tropical cyclone, high trough, and subtropical high control types.

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沈曉玲,黃海迅,章麗娜.2010—2019年浙江暖季短時強降水特征分析[J].氣象科技,2022,50(1):103~113

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  • 收稿日期:2021-01-28
  • 定稿日期:2021-09-23
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  • 在線發布日期: 2022-02-28
  • 出版日期: 2022-02-28
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