臺風“溫比亞”影響期間山東極端降水過程水汽來源及源區貢獻定量分析
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山東省氣象局科研項目(2020sdqxm04)資助


Moisture Sources and Quantitative Analysis of Source Contributions of Extreme Precipitation in Shandong Province Affected by Rumbia
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    摘要:

    利用拉格朗日后向軌跡追蹤模式HYSPLIT,結合蒸發—降水診斷法及相關的水汽貢獻定量分析法,分析了臺風“溫比亞”影響期間山東極端強降水的水汽來源及輸送特征。結果表明:區域極端強降水的發生與大尺度的水汽輸送和輻合密切相關;影響強降水的水汽源地主要有4個,它們分別位于印度洋→孟加拉灣→南海、低緯西太平洋、中緯度西北太平洋和中國東部;源區貢獻定量分析表明,低緯西太平洋對極端降水的水汽貢獻最大,中緯度西北太平洋次之,印度洋→孟加拉灣→南海與中國東部的貢獻相當且均低于中緯度西北太平洋;進一步對比不同源區的水汽輸送差異發現,雖然印度洋→孟加拉灣→南海初期攝取的水汽較多,但輸送過程中過高的沿途水汽損耗,顯著降低了其對極端降水的水汽貢獻,盡管中緯度西北太平洋和中國東部地區初期攝取的水汽較少,但兩者沿途的水汽損失亦小并且兩者攝取的水汽在目標區實際轉為降水的比例較高,因此兩者最終的水汽貢獻不容忽視。

    Abstract:

    Based on the HYSPLIT model, a Lagrangian particle dispersion model, combined with E-R (evaporation minus precipitation) diagnostics and the related quantitative analysis method of water vapour contribution, the water vapour source and transport characteristics of extreme precipitation in Shandong Province affected by Rumbia (August 2018) are diagnosed. Results indicate that the occurrence of extreme precipitation was related to global water vapour transport and convergence. The water vapour of extreme precipitation mainly came from the regions of the Indian Ocean-Bay of Bengal-South China Sea, the lowlatitude western Pacific, the Mid-latitude Northwest Pacific and Eastern China. The low-latitude western Pacific made the largest contribution, followed by the Mid-latitude Northwest Pacific, while the Indian Ocean-Bay of Bengal-South China Sea and Eastern China both contributed similar amounts that were less than those from the Mid-latitude Northwest Pacific. Besides, by comparing with differences of water vapour transport in different source regions, it is found that although the uptake from the region of the Indian Ocean-Bay of Bengal-South China Sea was relatively high, its ultimate contribution to the target precipitation was dramatically reduced due to evaporation in the air parcels. Despite the uptake from the Mid-latitude Northwest Pacific and Eastern China were relatively low. Still, moisture loss in transit was also small, and the released proportion from the former was higher, so their contribution cannot be ignored.

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任偉,任燕,張慶.臺風“溫比亞”影響期間山東極端降水過程水汽來源及源區貢獻定量分析[J].氣象科技,2022,50(1):94~102

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  • 收稿日期:2021-05-07
  • 定稿日期:2021-09-30
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  • 在線發布日期: 2022-02-28
  • 出版日期: 2022-02-28
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