新疆短時強降水天氣主要流型及環境參量特征分析
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國家自科學然基金項目“南疆西部持續性暴雨水汽輸送及輻合機制研究”(41965002)、新疆維吾爾自治區自然科學基金項目“昆侖山北坡降水氣候特征及預報預警技術研究”(2021D01A15)共同資助


Characteristic Analysis of Main Weather Pattern and Environmental Parameter of Short-Time Heavy Precipitation in Xinjiang
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    摘要:

    利用近10年新疆暖季(5—9 月)常規觀測、區域自動站小時降水資料,對468個短時強降水過程的主要流型、關鍵環境參數特征及預報閾值進行討論。結果表明:新疆短時強降水的流型有中亞低槽(渦)、西西伯利亞低槽(渦)、西北氣流等3種,中亞低槽(渦)是影響新疆短時強降水的主要流型;探空溫濕廓線可分為Ⅰ型(整層干)、Ⅱ型(上干下濕)、Ⅲ型(上濕下干)和Ⅳ型(整層濕),Ⅰ型和Ⅲ型是新疆短時強降水的主要類型;中亞低槽(渦)主要是探空溫濕廓線Ⅲ、Ⅳ型,西伯利亞低槽(渦)多為Ⅰ、Ⅱ型,西北氣流Ⅰ、Ⅲ型居多。3種流型對應的主要環境參量最低閾值:850 hPa與500 hPa溫差分別為24.0 ℃、25.0 ℃和27.0 ℃、地面至700 hPa露點溫度均值分別為3.0 ℃、2.0 ℃和2.9 ℃;CAPE分別為117 J·Kg-1、146 J·Kg-1和103 J·Kg-1、0~6 km垂直風切變分別為0.8×10-3s-1、1.0×10-3s-1和0.5×10-3s-1。本文對新疆短時強降水主要流型配置、短臨預報潛勢及閾值進行初探,為新疆短時強降水短臨預報預警提供支撐。

    Abstract:

    Using the conventional observation data and automatic regional station hourly precipitation data of Xinjiang in the warm season (May to September) for the past ten years, 468 short-time heavy precipitation processes are counted, and their main weather flow, key environmental parameter characteristics and forecast thresholds are discussed. The conclusions are as follows. The effect systems primarily were the central Asia trough (vortex), West Siberia trough (vortex) and Northwest flow. Among the three, the central Asia trough (vortex) occurred most freguently. The temperature and relative humidity profiles from radiosonde sounding can be classified into four types: type I (air with the whole atmosphere dry), type II (air with upper-layer dry and lower-layer wet), type III (air with upper-layer wet and lower-layer dry), and type IV (air with the whole atmosphere wet). The short-time heavy precipitation occurred most freguently under the atmosphere of type I and type III. The central Asia trough (vortex) processes were mainly type III or type IV. Most cases of the West Siberia trough (vortex) belonged to type I and type II. Type I and type III were in the majority of that under the Northwest flow. The corresponding minimum thresholds of the main environmental parameters for the three flow patterns were: 24.0 ℃, 25.0 ℃, 27.0 ℃ for the temperature difference between 850 hPa and 500 hPa; 3.0 ℃, 2.0 ℃, 2.9 ℃ for the average dew temperature from the ground to 700 hPa; 117 J·Kg-1, 146 J·Kg-1, 103 J·Kg-1 for CAPE; 0.8×10-3s-1, 1.0×10-3s-1, 0.5×10-3s-1 for 0-6 km vertical wind shear. In order to provide technical support to the short-time heavy precipitation nowcasting and warning, the preliminary exploration on main weather flow configuration, potential shortimpending prediction and thresholds are made.

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黃艷,俞小鼎,張云惠.新疆短時強降水天氣主要流型及環境參量特征分析[J].氣象科技,2022,50(1):85~93

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  • 收稿日期:2021-02-04
  • 定稿日期:2021-09-06
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  • 在線發布日期: 2022-02-28
  • 出版日期: 2022-02-28
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