西安東部夜間異常增溫原因及其數值模式預報訂正
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國家重點研發計劃專項資助(2018YFC1507901)


Mechanisms of Night Sudden Intense Warming Event in the East of Xi’an Area and Numerical Model Calibration Method
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    摘要:

    利用陜西省氣象監測站觀測資料、NCEP/NCAR和ERA5全球再分析資料,對2019年12月10日凌晨西安東部一次夜間溫度異常躍增過程進行深入分析。結果表明:①此次夜間增溫過程發展迅速、局地性強、預報難度大。②500 hPa內蒙東部冷槽底后部干燥的西北氣流和850 hPa干暖氣團有利于產生大氣下沉絕熱增溫。西安地區近地面存在逆溫,阻礙大氣熱量的垂直交換。升溫前西安東部2 m氣溫較周邊地區顯著偏暖,且維持時間長,為該地區夜間升溫創造了有利條件。③西安東部低空長時間維持較強的暖平流,地面不斷有弱冷空氣侵入,加之受驪山阻擋,使得臨潼地區近地面暖空氣被急劇壓縮,同時大氣下沉絕熱增溫效應增強,在這四者的共同作用下造成了臨潼地區夜間氣溫的顯著躍增。④選取了近3年18次臨潼地區夜間增溫過程,對其進行天氣系統、探空、垂直結構等深入分析,總結歸納臨潼夜間增溫發生判據,結合數值模式預報產品,提出訂正方案,并進行檢驗評估。該方案有一定的正訂正效果,可為數值模式對此類強轉折性天氣過程中氣溫精細化預報提供參考。

    Abstract:

    Based on the data of meteorological stations over Shaanxi Province, NCEP/NCAR and ERA5 global reanalysis data, an in-depth analysis is conducted on the abnormal temperature jump process in the eastern part of Xi’an during the early morning hours of December 10, 2019. The results show that: (1) This night sudden intense warming event developed rapidly and locally. It wasn’t easy to forecast. (2) The dry northwest airflow at 500 hPa and the dry warm air at 850 hPa were beneficial to the sinking adiabatic heating. There was inversion near the surface in Xi’an, which hindered the vertical exchange of atmospheric heat. The 2 m temperature in the east of Xi’an was significantly warmer than that in the surrounding areas. It lasted for a long time, creating favourable conditions for the nighttime warming in this area. (3) In this event, the adiabatic warming effect was strengthened with the eastward movement of the Xinjiang high ridge. The strong warm advection had been maintained in the lower layer of the eastern Xi’an area for a long time. In addition, because of the continuous invasion of weak cold air and the barrier effect of Lishan Mountain, the warm air near the ground in the Lintong area was compressed sharply. Under the four factors, the night temperature in the Lintong area increased significantly. (4) 18 night sudden intense warming cases in the Lintong area are analyzed, and the occurrence criteria are summarized. The correction scheme is put forward and tested combined with the numerical model prediction products. The scheme has a positive correction effect in the Lintong area, providing a reference for the night temperature prediction.

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劉嘉慧敏,薛春芳,王建鵬,潘留杰,張煦庭,鄭然,黃少妮,梁綿.西安東部夜間異常增溫原因及其數值模式預報訂正[J].氣象科技,2022,50(1):66~74

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  • 收稿日期:2021-01-14
  • 定稿日期:2021-09-13
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  • 在線發布日期: 2022-02-28
  • 出版日期: 2022-02-28
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