氣候變暖對廣西雙季稻安全生產期的影響
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廣西科技重點研發計劃項目(桂科 AB171195037)、廣西自然科學基金面上項目(2020GXNSFAA159028)、中國氣象局創新發展專項項目“農業氣象試驗站區域聯合試驗”(CXFZ2021Z059)、柳州市氣象局氣象科研計劃項目(柳氣科202004)資助


Impacts of Climate Warming on Safe Production Dates of Double Cropping Rice in Guangxi
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    摘要:

    利用1960—2019年廣西88個國家氣象觀測站逐日氣溫資料,將研究時段分成前30年(P1:1960—1989年)和后30年(P2:1990—2019年)2個階段,分析早稻安全播種期和安全移栽期、晚稻安全齊穗期和安全成熟期的年際變化規律,并通過比較P1和P2階段不同保證率下各安全生產期的差異,分析氣候變暖背景下廣西雙季稻安全生產期的變化特征。結果表明:①早稻安全播種期和安全移栽期主要表現為提前變化趨勢,晚稻安全齊穗期和安全成熟期主要表現為推遲變化趨勢,全區80%和90%保證率安全播種期和安全移栽期平均提前2 d,80%和90%保證率安全齊穗期平均推遲2 d,80%和90%保證率安全成熟期平均推遲5 d和6 d。②安全生產期的變化特征空間差異性較大,桂東北安全播種期和安全移栽期提前天數最多,達6 d以上,百色那坡、靖西地區安全齊穗期推遲天數最多,達6 d以上,全區大部分地區安全成熟期推遲天數在6~10 d,空間差異相對較小。

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    Daily temperature of 88 national meteorological stations in Guangxi from 1960 to 2019 are utilized in the research. The study period is divided into two stages: the first 30 years (P1: 1960-1989) and the last 30 years (P2: 1990-2019). The annual variation of the safe sowing date and safe transplanting date of early rice, safe full heading date and safe maturity date of late rice is analyzed. Differences in safe production dates under different guarantee rates in P1 and P2 stages are compared. The aim is to analyze the impact of climate warming on the safe production dates of doublecropping rice in Guangxi. The results show that: (1) The safe sowing date and safe transplanting date of early rice showed a trend ahead of time. The safe full heading date and safe maturity date of late rice showed a trend of delay. The safe sowing date and safe transplanting dates of 80% and 90% guarantee rates were advanced by two days on average. The safe full heading dates of 80% and 90% guarantee rates were delayed by two days on average. On average, the safe maturity dates of 80% and 90% guarantee rates were delayed by five days and six days separately. (2) The results show that the spatial differences of variation characteristics of safe production dates were significant. The safe sowing date and safe transplanting date advanced by more days (above six days) in the northeast of Guangxi. The safe full heading date was delayed by more days (above six days) in Napo and Jingxi of Baise. The delay days of the safe maturity date were six to ten days in most areas of Guangxi, and the spatial differences were relatively small.

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黃維,吳炫柯,劉梅,何燕,劉永裕.氣候變暖對廣西雙季稻安全生產期的影響[J].氣象科技,2021,49(6):975~982

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  • 收稿日期:2021-03-26
  • 定稿日期:2021-06-09
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  • 在線發布日期: 2021-12-29
  • 出版日期: 2021-12-31
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