基于遙感影像大數據、卷積神經網絡的福建省有效致災雷電分布模型及應用
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福建省科技廳社會發展引導性(重點)項目(2019Y0063)、災害天氣國家重點實驗室開放課題(2021LASWB07)、福建省氣象局研究型業務專項項目(2020YJ08)、福建省氣象局基層科技專項(2020J02)共同資助


Study and Application of Effective Disaster-Causing Lightning Distribution in Fujian Province Based on Remote Sensing Image Sensing and Convolutional Neural Network
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    摘要:

    為了研究福建省有效致災雷電的分布情況,基于福建省2004—2012年閃電定位數據及雷擊人員傷亡數據、福建省L17級谷歌遙感影像瓦片,引入卷積神經網絡模型對遙感影像所在區域是否屬于人員活動的屬性進行建模、訓練和預測,得到福建省人員活動屬性的格點產品,結合福建省歷史雷電數據對有效致災的雷電分布情況進行了分析,結果表明:①設計的遙感影像+CNN識別模型具有一定的可行性和準確率,通過顯著性水平為0.01的假設檢驗;②福建省有63.55%的格點為無人員活動區域;③平均有45.36%的閃電落在無人員活動的區域,因地制宜地對其他致災閃電進行預警是提高應急減災服務效果的可行途徑;④有效致災雷電密度與歷史雷擊人員傷亡數據的相關性遠大于常規雷電密度與歷史雷擊人員傷亡數據的相關性,有效致災雷電分布在表征雷電災害上比常規雷電分布更具有指示意義。

    Abstract:

    In order to study the distribution of effective disastercausing lightning in Fujian Province, based on the lightning location data and lightning casualty data of Fujian Province in 2004-2012, and the L17class Google remote sensing image tiles of Fujian Province, the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model is introduced to model, train, and predicts for identifying whether the area where the remote sensing image belongs to is unpopulated. We obtained the grid products of the activity attribute of Fujian Province, combining with the historical lightning data of Fujian Province and analyzed the actual distribution of lightning. The results show that: (1) The designed remote sensing image and CNN identification model had certain feasibility and accuracy, passed the hypothesis test with a significance level of 0.01. (2) 63.55% of the grid points in Fujian Province were in unpopulated areas. (3) An average of 45.36% of lightning fell in unpopulated areas, and early warning and prediction of other disasteraffecting lightning was a feasible way to improve the effectiveness of emergency mitigation services according to local conditions. (4) The correlation between the effective lightning density and the historical lightning casualty data was much greater than that of the conventional lightning density and the historical lightning casualty data, and the distribution of effective lightning was more indicative than the regular lightning distribution.

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張燁方,劉冰,馮真禎,朱彪.基于遙感影像大數據、卷積神經網絡的福建省有效致災雷電分布模型及應用[J].氣象科技,2021,49(6):953~959

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歷史
  • 收稿日期:2020-12-21
  • 定稿日期:2021-09-15
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  • 在線發布日期: 2021-12-29
  • 出版日期: 2021-12-31
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