南海港口大風的環流特征及其預報指標——以海南洋浦港為例
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海南省南海氣象防災減災重點實驗室開放基金 (SCSF201907)、海南省自然科學基金面上項目(420MS119)資助


Circulation Characteristics and Forecasting Indicators of High Wind in a Port of South China Sea: Taking Yangpu Port as an Example
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    摘要:

    本文以海南洋浦港為例,利用2015—2019年大風資料,通過合成分析等方法深入探討了不同類型大風過程的環流特征、發生機制及其預報指標。結果表明:①洋浦港大風過程按照影響系統可分為冷空氣型、切變線型、熱帶氣旋型和熱低壓型4種。②冷空氣型大風主要是由強冷平流引發的;當925 hPa關鍵區24 h降溫超過6 ℃且北風分量大于11.5 m/s時,洋浦港6 h后易發生冷空氣型大風;切變線型大風主要產生于強對流引發的雷暴大風、颮線等;當925 hPa低空切變線、500 hPa南支槽等天氣尺度系統出現有利配置,對流有效位能CAPE≥1500 J〖DK〗·kg-1,且具有較合適的對流抑制能量CIN值時,易發生切變線型大風;熱低壓型大風與海陸熱力差異引起的海風鋒密切相關;當海南島西北部陸地與近海海面的6 h變溫之差≥3.5 ℃,CAPE≥1500 J〖DK〗·kg-1,CIN≤20 J〖DK〗·kg-1時,海風鋒極易觸發雷暴大風等強對流天氣;熱帶氣旋型大風主要發生在TC中心附近的等壓線密集帶以及外圍螺旋雨帶的中小尺度對流系統中。業務預報時可在數值預報基礎上結合統計規律以及衛星、雷達等實況資料綜合判定風力等級。

    Abstract:

    Taking Yangpu Port of Hainan as an example, using wind data from 2015 to 2019, the circulation characteristics, inducing mechanism and forecasting indicators of different kinds of High Wind Processes (HWPs) are investigated in this paper. Results suggest that: (1) HWPs of Yangpu Port can be divided into four types, namely coldair type, shearline type, tropicalcyclone (TC) type and thermallow type, according to their influencing systems. (2) The coldair HWP is mainly due to the advection of cold air. When the decreasing of the temperature in the critical area at 925 hPa is greater than 6 ℃ and the magnitude of north wind is greater than 11.5 m/s, it indicates that the coldair HWP will occur in 6 hours; the shearlinear HWP is mainly caused by thunderstorm gales and squall lines induced by severe convection; when favorable configuration appears in synopticscale systems such as 925 hPa low shearline and 500 hPa south trough, CAPE≥1500 J·kg-1 with appropriate CIN value, the shearlinear HWP is prone to occur; the thermallow HWP is closely related to the sea breeze front caused by the difference of sealand heat; when the difference of the increasing temperature between northwest inland and offshore sea surface in 6 hours is greater than or equal to 3.5 ℃, CAPE≥1500 J·kg-1, CIN≤20 J·kg-1, the sea breeze front is prone to trigger severe convection such as thunderstorms and gales; the TC HWP mainly occurs in the isobaric dense belt near the TC center and the mesoscale convective systems in the peripheral spiral rain belt. The wind scale can be determined synthetically based on the numerical forecast and combined with the statistical law, satellite, radar, and other monitoring data in the operational forecast.

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魏曉雯,陳亮,趙蕾,陳明.南海港口大風的環流特征及其預報指標——以海南洋浦港為例[J].氣象科技,2021,49(5):754~761

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  • 收稿日期:2021-01-29
  • 定稿日期:2021-06-23
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  • 在線發布日期: 2021-10-26
  • 出版日期: 2021-10-31
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