電網架空導線載流量計算氣象參數組合特征及風險分析
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國網河北電力有限公司科技項目(kj201718),國家自然科學基金項目(批準號: 41705075),國網2016年度科技項目(52170216000A)資助


Combination Characteristics and Risk Analysis of Meteorological Parameters for Carrying Capacity Calculation of Overhead Line in a Power Grid
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    摘要:

    根據架空導線載流量的計算需求,選擇河北南部電網,利用94個氣象站1974—2018年月平均最高氣溫、月極端最高氣溫和14:00的平均風速資料,結合箱線圖方法,分析了各月平均值、中位數、四分位數、異常值截斷點和異常值等變化特征,并確定了各月高溫分析區間和小風速分析區間,將高溫分析區間和小風速分析區間進行組合作為氣象參數組合;利用94個站點自動站建站至2018年09:00—20:00的逐時氣溫和風速資料,逐月分析了各種氣象參數組合出現的頻率和對應的氣象風險分布。結果表明最高氣溫和最小風速組合出現的概率很小,僅6、7、8、11月出現過4、1、130、1站時;總體上,高風險氣象參數組合出現概率在12個月都很小,中風險和低風險氣象參數組合在夏季出現概率相對較高;氣象參數組合綜合風險呈現一定的空間分布,滄州、保定和雄安新區風險相對較低,太行山和山前平原風險相對較高。本研究對了解高影響天氣狀況下的電網運行風險有一定幫助。

    Abstract:

    According to the calculation demand of the carrying capacity of the overhead lines, this paper analyzes the monthly average, median, and quartile values, as well as the cutoff points of the abnormal values, by using the monthly extreme maximum temperature and the average wind speed at 14:00 of 94 meteorological stations in the southern Hebei power grid area from 1974 to 2018. Then the monthly high temperature analysis interval and the small wind speed analysis interval are determined and each high temperature analysis interval and the small wind speed analysis interval are grouped into meteorological parameter combinations. Based on the hourly temperature and wind speed data of 94 automatic stations in the southern Hebei power grid area from the station construction to 20 September in 2018, 〖JP2〗combined with the combination of meteorological parameters determined by the box plot method, the frequency of combination of various meteorological parameters and the meteorological risk of combination of parameters for the carrying capacity calculation of the southern Hebei power grid are analyzed month by month. The results show that the probability of combination of the maximum temperature and the minimum wind speed is very small, only 4, 1, 130 and 1 station in June, July, August and November. In general, the occurrence probability of combination of highrisk meteorological parameters is very small in 12 months, and the occurrence probability of combination of medium risk and lowrisk meteorological parameters is relatively high in summer. The comprehensive meteorological risk of combination of meteorological parameters is different in space. The risks of Cangzhou, Baoding and the Xiong’an new district are relatively low, while the risks of the Taihang Mountains and the plain in front of the mountain are relatively high. This study is helpful to understand the risk of power grid operation under highimpact weather conditions.〖JP〗

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顧光芹,李宏宇,鄭雄偉,井元元,王丙蘭.電網架空導線載流量計算氣象參數組合特征及風險分析[J].氣象科技,2021,49(3):483~490

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  • 收稿日期:2020-03-11
  • 定稿日期:2020-12-29
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  • 在線發布日期: 2021-06-23
  • 出版日期: 2021-06-30
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