2018年臺風“摩羯”和“溫比亞”路徑的影響因子分析
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山東省氣象局預報員專項(SDYBY201711)、濟寧市氣象局自立科研課題(2018JNZL20)資助


Factors Influencing Tracks of Typhoons Yagi and Rumbia in 2018
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    摘要:

    利用中國氣象局(CMA)提供的熱帶氣旋最佳路徑資料和歐洲中心(ECMWF)提供的ERA interim再分析資料,對2018年兩個北上影響山東的臺風“摩羯”和“溫比亞”路徑差異的原因進行分析發現:“摩羯”和“溫比亞”臺風路徑的差異主要與周圍天氣系統分布差異有關,兩臺風均先后受到副熱帶高壓和大陸高壓的影響,“溫比亞”還受高空槽的影響,使其轉向角度較大,而臺風與高壓系統相互作用形成的引導氣流是影響這兩個臺風路徑的主要因素?!澳︳伞焙汀皽乇葋啞钡淖罴岩龑饬骶挥谂_風中心5個緯度半徑內,〖JP2〗不同階段所受引導氣流的高度存在差異,臺風登陸前中低層引導氣流對臺風移向的指示作用均優于高層,登陸后轉向前緯向引導氣流均優于經向,但穩定性稍差,轉向后除“溫比亞”經向引導氣流相關較差外均整層相關較好,中高層略優于低層,且高層風(300~200 hPa)〖JP〗可以提前12 h預報臺風轉向。此外,臺風總是向著臺風附近的正渦度平流方向移動,正渦度平流越強,臺風移動越快。

    Abstract:

    By using the besttrack datasets of tropical cyclones (TCs) provided by the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and the ERA interim reanalysis data provided by the European Centre for MediumRange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the reasons for the difference between the tracks of typhoons Yagi and Rumbia that influenced Shandong when moving northward in 2018 are analyzed. It is found that: The differences between the tracks of typhoons Yagi and Rumbia are mainly related to the different distributions of the weather systems. Both typhoons were affected by the subtropical high and continental high successively, and Rumbia was also influenced by the upper trough that made a big angle change of the move direction. The steering airflow formed by the interaction between typhoon and highpressure systems were the main factors influencing the tracks of the two typhoons. The radiuses of the best steering airflow were within 5 latitudes of the TC center in both Yagi and Rumbia, but the height was different in different stages. The indicative function of the airflow at the middlelow levels was superior to that at the high levels before landing. After landing and before turning, the zonal airflow was better than the meridional, but the stability was little worse. After turning, without the meridional airflow of Rumbia, both the meridional and zonal airflow of Yagi and the zonal airflow of Rumbia had significant correlation across the whole level, and the middleupper levels were slightly better than the low levels. The airflow from 300 to 200 hPa can be used to forecast the turning of the typhoon 12 hours in advance. In addition, typhoons always move towards the direction of the positive vorticity advection nearby, and the stronger the positive vorticity advection is, the faster the typhoon moves.

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李瑞芬,袁月,郭衛華,李一偉.2018年臺風“摩羯”和“溫比亞”路徑的影響因子分析[J].氣象科技,2021,49(3):427~436

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  • 收稿日期:2020-02-27
  • 定稿日期:2021-02-23
  • 錄用日期:
  • 在線發布日期: 2021-06-23
  • 出版日期: 2021-06-30
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