廣東省冬季暴雨及其環流形勢特征分析
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國家重點研發計劃資助(2018YFC1505806)、中山市氣象局科學技術研究項目(JKT201913)資助


Analysis of Winter Rainstorms and Their Circulation Characteristics in Guangdong Province
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    摘要:

    利用1981—2019年冬季廣東省86個人工氣象觀測站的降水資料、NCEP再分析資料,以及2005—2020年的MICAPS探空資料,對廣東省冬季暴雨的時空分布、天氣形勢和探空指數特征進行了研究。結果表明:①廣東冬季暴雨空間分布不均勻,總體上東多西少、北多南少,39年間各個站點每年平均出現冬季暴雨0.25站次;冬季暴雨過程以局地性暴雨過程為主,出現暴雨的站次數在10個以下的過程占比65.6%。②冬季暴雨過程在2月出現最多,12月最少,2月的暴雨對流特征較明顯,1981—1990年、2011—2019年年均冬季暴雨過程2.1次,是近39年冬季暴雨出現最多的年代。③冬季暴雨大多出現在K〖WTBZ〗指數和垂直溫差ΔT〖WTBZ〗適中,對流有效位能CAPE〖WTBZ〗較小,SI〖WTBZ〗指數和整層比濕積分IQ〖WTBZ〗較大的層結條件下,以穩定性降水為主。④廣東冬季暴雨最常見的天氣形勢為500 hPa南支槽東移、850 hPa穩定的偏南氣流和冷式切變、地面有冷空氣南下影響;切變〖CD*2〗冷空氣型、南風〖CD*2〗冷空氣型、南風〖CD*2〗變性高壓脊型和南風〖CD*2〗西南低壓型是最常見的4類冬季暴雨天氣形勢。

    Abstract:

    Based on the precipitation data from 86 observational stations in Guangdong Province and the NCEP reanalysis data from 1981 to 2019, and the MICAPS radiosonde data from 2005 to 2020, the temporal and spatial distribution, synoptic circulation and the radiosonde characteristics of winter rainstorm events in Guangdong are studied. The results show: (1) The winter rainstorms in Guangdong show ununiform distributions in different areas. Generally, more rainstorms occur in north and east than in south and west, and there are 0.25 winter rainstorms that occur in Guangdong per year on average. The rainstorm events occurring at less than 10 stations account for 65.6% of total rainstorm events in winter, indicating that the winter rainstorm events usually occur in small regions. (2) Winter rainstorms occurring in February take the largest percentage, while rainstorms in December are the least. Convection is usually found along with the rainstorms in February. Rainstorm events occurred between 1981 and 1990, 2011 and 2019 are more than those of other two decades in Guangdong. (3) Most winter rainstorms occur in steady atmospheric stratification with moderate K index and Δ〖WTBX〗T〖WTBZ〗, low CAPE, 〖JP2〗high SI and IQ index. (4) The main influencing systems include the eastward moving south westerly trough at 500 hPa, steady southerly airflows and cold shear line at 850 hPa, and the southward moving cold front at ground. Dominant background synoptic circulation that brings winter rainstorms can be classified into 4 patterns, including the shear linecold front pattern, the southerly airflowcold front pattern, the southerly airflowtransformed cold high ridge pattern, and the southerly airflowsouthwest depression pattern. 〖JP〗

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麥健華,于玲玲,紀忠萍,吳道航,陳柏林.廣東省冬季暴雨及其環流形勢特征分析[J].氣象科技,2021,49(3):380~387

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  • 收稿日期:2020-08-14
  • 定稿日期:2020-11-23
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  • 在線發布日期: 2021-06-23
  • 出版日期: 2021-06-30
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