昆明準靜止鋒移動影響因子數值模擬試驗
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中國氣象局預報員專項項目(CMAYBY2020119)、國家自然科學基金項目(41805037)和云南省自然資源廳項目“云南省地質災害氣象風險預警業務能力建設”共同資助


Numerical Simulation Experiment on Affecting Factors of Kunming Quasi Stationary Front Movement
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    摘要:

    利用中尺度WRF(Weather Research Forecast)模式,結合NCEP/NCAR再分析資料和常規氣象觀測資料,對2016年1月22—24日昆明準靜止鋒主要移動過程進行數值模擬和敏感試驗,研究昆明準靜止鋒移動的影響因素。結果表明:WRF模式較成功模擬出此次昆明準靜止鋒鋒面的移動過程和鋒面西進的位置。當地形高度增加到1.2倍時,昆明準靜止鋒鋒面西進的速度減慢,鋒面越過103°E附近最高地形的時間推后了9~12 h,鋒面到達最西邊的位置也〖JP2〗較未修改地形的位置偏東。對地形進行增高100 m,200 m,〖JP2〗300 m,400 m和500 m,以及降低100 m,〖JP〗200 m,300 m,400 m和500 m的模擬試驗。從昆明準靜止鋒位置的差異看,地形高度改變后,模擬積分時間越長,鋒面位置差別越大。地形增高后,鋒面在相對高地形的103°E以東的位置,受地形阻擋,鋒面位置差異相對小。當地形高度降低后,每下降100 m,鋒面位置差異相對大。說明地形對昆明準靜止鋒的移動速度影響巨大。當改變暖氣團的熱力場,增加暖氣團氣溫2 ℃,昆明準靜止鋒西移速度增快。增強暖氣團的氣壓和風場動力場,昆明準靜止鋒西進的速度減慢。從地形和暖氣團敏感試驗的模擬結果看,影響昆明準靜止鋒鋒面移動速度的因素為地形和冷暖氣團勢力對比,冷暖氣團勢力對比因素對鋒面移動速度的影響作用比地形因素相對小。

    Abstract:

    Based on the mesoscale WRF (Weather Research and Forecast) model, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and conventional meteorological observation data, the main moving process of the Kunming QuasiStationary Front (KQSF) from 22 to 24 January 2016 is simulated and sensitive tests are conducted to study the influencing factors of the KQSF movement. The results show that the WRF model successfully simulates the moving process of KQSF and the position of the front westward. When the height of the terrain increases by 1.2 times, the speed of the Kunming quasistatic front moving westward slows down, and the time for the front to cross the highest terrain near 103 °E is delayed by 9 to 12 hours, and the position of the front reaching the westernmost side is farther east than that of the unmodified terrain. The terrain is simulated by increasing 100 m, 200 m, 300 m, 400 m and 500 m, and decreasing 100 m, 200 m, 300 m, 400 m and 500 m. From the difference of the position of KQSF, the longer the simulation integral time is, the greater the difference of the front position is when the terrain height is changed. When the terrain is increased, the front is located to the east of 103°E of the relatively high terrain, which is blocked by the terrain, and the difference of the front position is relatively small. When the terrain height is reduced, the difference of the front position every 100 m is relatively large. It shows that the topography has a great influence on the moving speed of KQSF. When the temperature of the warm mass is increased by 2 ℃, the moving speed of the KQSF westward is faster. By strengthening the dynamic force field of the heating mass, the speed of KQSF westward is slowed down. From the simulation results of topography and heating mass sensitivity test, it can be seen that the factors affecting the moving speed of the Kunming quasistatic front are the topography and confrontation of cold and warm air masses, the heating masses play a relatively small role compared with topography.

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王曼,朱莉,段旭,李華宏,陳新梅,李璠.昆明準靜止鋒移動影響因子數值模擬試驗[J].氣象科技,2021,49(3):362~371

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  • 收稿日期:2020-07-09
  • 定稿日期:2020-11-30
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  • 在線發布日期: 2021-06-23
  • 出版日期: 2021-06-30
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