氣象衛星應用效益評估方法及其應用
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國家重點研發計劃項目(2016FYB0500704)、“萬人計劃”領軍人才(批號187)、中國氣象局氣象軟科學研究重點項目(2020ZDIANXM09)和國家自然科學基金資助項目(41601400)共同資助


Methods for Benefit Evaluation of Meteorological Satellite Application
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    摘要:

    氣象衛星作為重要的氣象基礎設施具有投入大且潛在效益巨大的特點,開展氣象衛星應用效益評估不僅是國家公共資源配置的需要,更是氣象衛星系統提高應用效能的需要。參考氣象服務和衛星應用效益評估方法,嘗試提出適合中國的氣象衛星應用效益評估框架。氣象衛星應用的總體效益包括通過氣象服務間接產生的效益和直接應用產生的效益兩部分。前者是氣象服務效益中氣象衛星應用的貢獻,采用專家評估的方法估算;后者是用戶直接應用氣象衛星數據產生的效益,采用定量與定性相結合的方法綜合估算。本文提出的效益評估方法框架估算得到中國2012年氣象衛星應用效益值達335.5至846.6億元人民幣。通過比較中、美、歐氣象衛星應用效益值發現,歐盟最高而中美較為接近,而成本效益比方面中國高于歐盟。引起評估結果差異的主要原因之一是缺乏國際公認的評估方法框架。未來仍需加強氣象衛星效益評估領域的國際合作,借鑒先進經驗提高風云氣象應用效能,同時也可凝聚國際公認貢獻中國智慧。

    Abstract:

    Meteorological satellites are an important national infrastructure, which have been heavily invested and have a huge potential benefit nationalwide. The evaluation of socialeconomic benefits becomes more important since it answers the significant questions of why should more public resources located in meteorological satellite systems, and how valuable is their applications. A framework of benefit evaluation for meteorological satellites is established. This framework contains two parts: one is the contribution of meteorological satellite data to meteorological services, and the other is the benefit directly from the application of satellite data and products. To be specific, a contribution rate is adopted from the related researches and reports in the first part, while the other part covers all the benefits of direct satellite data applications which are quantitatively or qualitatively evaluated. The preliminary evaluation of the total benefits from meteorological satellite application is from 33.55×109 to 84.66×109 RMB in 2012 in China. Further comparison to those of the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) reveals that the benefits of China and US are relatively close, while both are much smaller than that of EU. However, the costbenefit ratio of China is higher than that of EU. The difference in the methods and scales of evaluation is the main cause. Thus, a consensus in the methods of evaluation should be reached among all the operational meteorological systems as soon as possible. It will better guide the development of the Chinese Fengyun meteorological satellite system and improve its efficiency.

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王富,陸其峰,于天雷.氣象衛星應用效益評估方法及其應用[J].氣象科技,2021,49(3):348~354

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歷史
  • 收稿日期:2020-04-20
  • 定稿日期:2021-01-21
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  • 在線發布日期: 2021-06-23
  • 出版日期: 2021-06-30
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