基于多源數據融合的云南省雷電災害風險綜合評價與區劃
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國家自然科學基金資助項目(41265001)、云南省科技廳科技惠民專項(2016RA096)資助


Comprehensive Evaluation and Zoning of Lightning Disaster Risks in Yunnan Province Based on Multi-Source Data Fusion
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    摘要:

    根據自然災害風險理論,結合氣象數據、地理信息、人口與經濟資料等開展雷電災害風險綜合評價,研究致災因子、孕災環境和承災體等因子與風險的定量化關系,建立評價指標和層次分析模型,運用模糊綜合判斷和聚類分析等方法計算綜合評價指數并劃分風險等級。結果表明:雷電災害高風險區主要集中在滇中、滇西南及滇西北的麗江東南部等地區;次高風險區分布于西雙版納、普洱、昆明、楚雄、曲靖西部、玉溪北部及大理中部等地;中風險區分布最廣,主要集中在臨滄、德宏、曲靖、紅河、麗江及文山北部等;迪慶、怒江和昭通的風險值較低,將風險綜合評價結果與歷史雷電災情的分布進行對比,兩者對應情況較好。開展基于災前防御的風險分析,研究雷電活動影響范圍和風險等級,有助于提前控制和處置風險,隨著技術方法的不斷改進,風險評價的置信度和可靠性也將得到提升。

    Abstract:

    According to the theory of natural disaster risk, combined with the meteorological observation data, geographic information, population, and economic data, the comprehensive evaluation of lightning disaster risks is carried out. This paper studies the quantitative relationship between the risk and the disastercausing factor, disasterbreeding environment, and disaster bearing body, establishes the evaluation index and the AHP model, calculates the comprehensive evaluation index, divides the regional risk levels by the fuzzy comprehensive judgment and cluster analysis, and draws the lightning disaster risk zoning map. The results show that: the highrisk areas of lightning disasters are mainly concentrated in the central and southwestern Yunnan, and the southeastern Lijiang in Northwest Yunnan; the secondary highrisk areas are distributed in Xishuangbanna, Puer, Kunming, Chuxiong, the western Qujing, northern Yuxi and central Dali; medium risk areas are mainly concentrated in Lincang, Dehong, Qujing, Honghe, Lijiang, and the northern Wenshan; the lowrisk areas are mainly located in Diqing, Nujiang, and Zhaotong. The results of risk zoning are compared with the distribution of historical lightning disasters, which correspond well. To carry out the risk analysis based on predisaster defense, judge and evaluate the possibility of regional lightning risk, and analyze the influence scope and risk level of disaster causing factors, are helpful to control and dispose risks in advance, and provide references for defense decisionmaking, risk management, and emergency disposal. With the improvement of information and technical methods, the confidence and reliability of risk assessment will also be improved.

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劉平英,張騰飛,尹麗云,周清倩,楊曉鵬.基于多源數據融合的云南省雷電災害風險綜合評價與區劃[J].氣象科技,2021,49(2):269~277

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  • 收稿日期:2020-02-11
  • 定稿日期:2020-11-16
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  • 在線發布日期: 2021-04-25
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