四川省干旱損失風險分析
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四川省應用基礎研究重點項目 (2017JY0294) 、高原與盆地暴雨旱澇災害四川省重點實驗室科技發展基金項目(SCQXKJQN2019007)共同資助


Risk Analysis of Drought Loss in Sichuan Province
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    摘要:

    利用四川省1961—2019年的氣象觀測資料及1991—2019年各縣旱情資料,采用信息擴散方法分析了10 a、50 a一遇干旱的持續天數、經濟損失率、人口受旱率和農作物受旱率的空間分布,并采用基于廣義帕累托分布(GDP)的極值(POT)模型分析了四川7個干旱氣候區,在不同置信水平下可能造成的最大經濟損失率(PML)。結果表明:①10 a重現期干旱持續天數,盆東北、盆中以及盆地西部山區相對較少在60~80 d,攀西地區西部、盆地南部、龍泉山脈相對較多在100 d以上;50 a重現期干旱持續天數,盆地嘉陵江、涪江流域、都江堰灌區、甘孜州中部以及川西高原西北部相對較少在90~120 d,攀西地區、甘孜州西南部和中部、盆地南部等局部地區在150 d以上。②10 a和50 a重現期農作物受旱率,川西高原北部、盆東北和盆中均偏高,分別大于60%和90%;攀西地區和成都平原等地區相對偏低,均小于60%。③10 a和50 a重現期人口受旱率川西高原和盆地東北部、中部和南部分別在60%和80%以上。④10 a和50 a重現期干旱經濟損失率,攀西地區、盆地西部(成德綿、雅樂眉)和南部(宜賓、自貢)均偏小,分別在3%和5%以下;盆東北、盆中和川西高原均相對而言偏高,其中盆東北局地、甘孜州西北部分別大于10%和20%。⑤在不同置信水平下,IV區(盆地東北部)和V區(甘孜州北部和阿壩州中西部)的PML相差較大且明顯高于其它5區,最大分別為28.5%和38.6%;VII區(甘孜州南部和攀西地區北部)的PML在不同置信水平下相差最小且均小于其它區域,最小為3.1%;I區(成都平原區)的PML在不同置信水平下均處于偏小位置且整體相差不大。

    Abstract:

    Based on the meteorological data of Sichuan Province from 1961 to 2019 and the drought data of the counties from 1991 to 2019, this paper adopts the information diffusion method to analyze the spatial distribution of drought duration, economic loss rate, crop drought rate and the rate of population exposed to drought for the 10year and 50year return periods. The extreme model based on the generalized Pareto distribution is used to analyze the Possible Maximum economic Loss rate (PML) under different confidence levels in seven arid climate zones of Sichuan Province. The results show that: (1) For the 10year return period, the drought durations are relatively short, about 60 to 80 days in the northeastern, central and western parts of the Sichuan basin, but longer, about 100 days in the Panxi region, southern Sichuan basin and Longquan mountains. For the 50year return period, the drought durations are relatively short, about 90 to 120 days in the Jialing River basin, Fujiang River basin, Dujiangyan irrigation area, central Ganzi prefecture and northwestern Sichuan Plateau, but longer, about 150 days in the Panxi region, southwestern and central Ganzi prefecture and southern Sichuan basin. (2) For 10year and 50year return periods, the drought rates of crops are higher than 60% and 90% respectively, in the northern part of the western Sichuan Plateau, the northeastern and central parts of the Sichuan basin. In the Panxi region and Chengdu Plain, the drought rates of crops are less than 60%. (3) For the 10year and 50year return periods, the rates of population exposed to drought in the western Sichuan Plateau and the northeastern, central and southern parts of the Sichuan basin are over 60% and 80%, respectively. (4) For the 10year and 50year return periods, in the Panxi region, the western and southern Sichuan basin, the economic loss rates are less than 3% and 5%, respectively. In the western Sichuan Plateau and the northeastern and central part of the Sichuan basin, the economic loss rates are higher. Especially for some areas in the northeast Sichuan basin and northwestern Ganzi prefecture, the loss rates are larger than 10% and 20%, respectively. (5) At different confidence levels, the PMLs of Zone IV (the northeastern Sichuan basin) and Zone V (the northern Ganzi prefecture, the central and western Aba prefecture) are quite different and obviously higher than those of other five zones, with the maximum values of 28.5% and 38.6%, respectively; The PMLs of Zone VII (the southern Ganzi prefecture and the northern Panxi prefecture) have the minimum difference under different confidence levels, and the minimum difference is 3.1%. The PMLs of Zone I (Chengdu Plain) are small under different confidence levels and the overall difference is not significant.

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孫蕊,張順謙,王春學,陳文秀.四川省干旱損失風險分析[J].氣象科技,2021,49(2):260~268

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  • 收稿日期:2020-05-05
  • 定稿日期:2020-08-11
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  • 在線發布日期: 2021-04-25
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