安徽省夏玉米澇漬災害時空特征及其災損風險
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濰坊市氣象局氣象科學技術研究項目“壽光近55 年初、終霜日、無霜期變化特征及對農業的影響研究”(2017wfqxkt07)資助


Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Summer Maize Waterlogging Disaster and Yield Loss Risk in Anhui Province
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    摘要:

    為分析安徽省夏玉米全生育期澇漬災害發生的特征,定量化評估澇漬災害風險程度。利用安徽省48年的氣象資料(1971-2018年),采用夏玉米澇漬指數模型,計算分析了安徽省夏玉米澇漬指數的時空特征,并確定了夏玉米澇漬指數等級指標,最后采用災損風險指數模型得到了安徽省夏玉米產量澇漬災損風險分布。結果表明:①夏玉米全生育期澇漬指數以0.027/10a的速率呈顯著上升趨勢,其中6月上旬和8月上旬上升趨勢最為明顯;澇漬指數的空間分布顯示其值變幅在0.08~0.38之間,其中大別山區、江南中東部和淮北局部是夏玉米澇漬指數的高值區。②建立的夏玉米澇漬災害等級指標和實際澇漬減產的結果較為一致,其中澇漬等級與實際減產率一致的比例為82.2%。③而夏玉米澇漬產量災損風險分布顯示大別山區、江淮東部和江南東部地區是安徽省夏玉米澇漬產量損失的高風險區。研究結果對開展區域農業氣象防災減災有很好的借鑒意義。

    Abstract:

    In order to analyze the characteristics of waterlogging disaster of summer maize in Anhui Province, and quantitatively evaluate the risk level of waterlogging disaster, in this paper we use the 48year meteorological data of Anhui Province (1971-2018), based on the waterlogging index model of summer maize, to calculate the temporal and spatial characteristics of waterlogging disaster and establish the grade index of waterlogging. Finally, through the disaster damage risk index model, we gain the risk distribution of waterlogginginduced yield loss of summer maize. The results show that the waterlogging index in the whole growth period of summer maize increased significantly at a rate of 0.027 per 10 years, and the upward trend was most obvious in early June and early August. The value of waterlogging index is between 0.08 and 0.38, and the high value area of summer maize waterlogging index include the Dabie mountain area, the central and eastern Jiangnan regions and some areas of the Huaibei region. The grade index of waterlogging disaster is relatively unanimous with the actual waterlogginginduced yield reduction, and the proportion of waterlogging grade being consistent with the actual yield reduction rate was 82.2%; The risk distributions of waterlogginginduced yield loss shows that the Dabie mountain and eastern Jianghuai and Jiangnan are high risk areas. The results have a good reference significance for regional agrometeorological disaster prevention and mitigation.

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魏忠光,崔修來,孫瑤,王曉東.安徽省夏玉米澇漬災害時空特征及其災損風險[J].氣象科技,2021,49(2):253~259

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  • 收稿日期:2020-05-06
  • 定稿日期:2020-09-08
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  • 在線發布日期: 2021-04-25
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