江蘇南部兩次暴雨-大暴雨過程分析
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國家自然科學基金面上項目(41575036)、江蘇省科技廳自然基金項目(BK20161604)、中國氣象局預報員專項(CMAYBY2019043)、江蘇省氣象局科研基金項目(KM201602、KM201704、JSYBY201709、JSYBY201708、JSYBY201809)共同資助


Analysis of Two Heavy Rainstorms in Southern Jiangsu
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    摘要:

    2011年6月10日(簡稱“11〖DK〗·06”)和2017年6月10日(簡稱“17〖DK〗·06”)在江蘇南部出現了兩次暴雨〖CD*2〗大暴雨過程,本文利用常規觀測資料、FNL再分析資料和雷達資料等,對兩次過程進行了分析,結果表明:異常的高低緯度環流形勢配合,為強降水的發生提供了有利的環流背景。兩次過程代表站的物理量場差異較大:“17〖DK〗·06”最大散度值約為“11〖DK〗·06”的2倍;“17〖DK〗·06”最大垂直速度、最大水汽通量散度值約為“11〖DK〗·06”的1.8、1.3倍且大值維持時間均很長。兩次過程均為暖區低質心熱帶海洋型強降水,但“11〖DK〗·06”強回波分散、伸展高度偏低、強度偏弱且無明顯強回波的列車效應;“17〖DK〗·06”強回波排列緊密、伸展高度高、強度明顯偏強且強回波列車效應明顯。螺旋度變化一般提前于降水變化,具有可預報性,可作為大面積降水開始—維持—結束的一個短時(臨近)預報因子。VWP產品中大風區底高的變化,有助于判斷雷達站附近降水的變化趨勢。

    Abstract:

    On 10 June 2011 (for short, Process 1106) and on 10 June 2017 (Process 1706), there occurred two rainstorms in the south of Jiangsu Province. With the conventional observational and FNL reanalysis data and radar data, the two processes are analyzed. The results show that the anomalous high and low latitudinal circulation conditions provided a favorable circulation background for the occurrence of the heavy precipitation. There were great differences between the two processes in the physical quantity fields of the representative stations: the maximum divergence of Process 1706 was about twice as big as that of Process 1106; the maximum vertical velocity and maximum water vapor flux divergence of Process 1706 were about 1.8 and 1.3 times as big as that of Process 1106; and the large values were maintained for a long time. Both processes were characterized by strong tropical precipitation in the warm region; but the strong echo of 1106 was dispersing, the extensional height was low, the intensity was weak, and there was no obvious “train effect” of strong echoes. The strong echoes of Process 1706 arranged closely; the extension height was high, the intensity was obviously strong; and the “train effect” of strong echo was obvious. The change of helicity was generally ahead of that of precipitation, which was predictable and can be used as a predictor of the start, maintenance, and ending of largearea precipitation in shorttime forecasting (nowcasting). The change of the bottom height of the high wind zone in VWP (Vertical Wind Profiles) products was helpful to judge the changing trend of precipitation around the radar station.

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雷正翠,夏文梅,徐芬,黃文彥,劉梅,劉銀峰.江蘇南部兩次暴雨-大暴雨過程分析[J].氣象科技,2021,49(1):95~106

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  • 收稿日期:2020-02-20
  • 定稿日期:2020-08-28
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  • 在線發布日期: 2021-03-04
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