近60年永興島熱帶氣旋降水的氣候特征分析
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海南省氣象局青年基金項目(HNQXQN201806)資助


Climatic Features of Rainfall Induced by Tropical Cyclones in Yongxing Island in Recent 60 Years
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    摘要:

    對1958—2019年期間,進入永興島及附近區域(11.5°~21.5°N,101.2°~117.5°E)范圍內的熱帶氣旋(Tropical Cyclone, TC)的氣候特征進行分析,結果表明:①永興島平均每年受9.4個TC影響,TC有顯著的下降趨勢,以0.68個/10a逐漸減少,趨勢系數為-0.406;②永興島TC路徑分為5類:向西直行偏北類(A類)、向西直行偏南類(B類)、轉向東北類(C類)、轉向西南類(D類)、從西向東北類(E類),〖JP2〗其中A類占比最大,占52.0%;③TC年均降水有顯著的下降趨勢,其回歸系數為-61.76 mm/10a,趨勢系數為-0.270;④TC活動對永興島強降雨貢獻最多,達到67.8%,其他天氣系統對永興島強降雨的貢獻僅為32.2%,年均TC強降雨日數為4.1 d,非TC強降雨日數為2.8 d,TC強降雨對總強降雨的貢獻率無明顯的趨勢變化,其回歸系數為0.57/10a,趨勢系數為0.055,而TC強降雨日數的貢獻率則呈現下降趨勢,其回歸系數為-4.7/10a,趨勢系數為-0.335,通過α=0.01顯著性檢驗。〖JP〗

    Abstract:

    This paper analyzes the climatic characteristics of the tropical cyclone (TC) centers that entered the range of 10°×10° (longitude×latitude) around Yongxing Island from 1958 to 2019. The results show that the Yongxing Island is influenced averagely by 9.4 TCs in a year, and the TCs show a significant (α=0.01) decreasing trend in 0.67 every decade (an trend coefficient of -0.406). This paper divides the TC paths in Yongxing Island into five categories: northwestward moving (A), southwestward moving (B), northeastward turning (C), southwestward turning (D), northeastward turning from west (E), of which Type A accounts for 52.0%. The annual rainfall caused by TCs exhibits a significant (α=0.05) decreasing trend (an regression coefficient of -61.76, an trend coefficient of -0.27). TC activities contribute the most to the heavy rainfall of Yongxing Island, reaching 67.8%, while the contribution of other weather systems is only 32.2%. The annual average number of rain days caused by typhoon is 4.1, while that caused by the others is 2.8 days. The contribution of Typhoon Rainstorms to annual storm rainfall shows no obvious variation trend (an regression coefficient of 0.57, an trend coefficient of 0.055), but the contribution of typhoon rainstorm days to annual rainstorm days shows a significant (α=0.01) decreasing trend (a regression coefficient of 4.7, a trend coefficient of -0.33).

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周宇,凌芬曼,施晨曉.近60年永興島熱帶氣旋降水的氣候特征分析[J].氣象科技,2021,49(1):69~76

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  • 收稿日期:2020-02-24
  • 定稿日期:2020-07-10
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  • 在線發布日期: 2021-03-04
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