基于雷達產品閾值與聞雷半徑的雷暴過程判別
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中國氣象局氣候變化專項(CCSF202029)資助


Identification of Thunderstorm Processes Based on Radar Product Threshold and Hearing-Thunder Radius
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    摘要:

    為向雷暴識別、跟蹤和臨近預報系統提供貼近臺站實際的雷達產品閾值,建立基于雷達觀測的雷暴日判別算法,利用雷暴人工觀測資料和雷達產品數據構建匹配率模型,采用累積距平法識別匹配率拐點來判定閾值和最優聞雷半徑,并計算出回波面積閾值。以常德氣象觀測站為例應用該方法,結果表明:①雷達產品閾值為38.5 dBz,最優聞雷半徑達到25 km,大于利用閃電定位數據與人工雷暴日對比得到的半徑,回波面積閾值為73 km2,經過評估各項閾值取值是合適的;②應用各項閾值結合雷達資料進行雷暴日判別時,需考慮雷暴的季節性變化,常德地區3—8月間應用效果較好;③應用該方法時應根據歷史聞雷方位選擇較長時間序列的雷達單站或雷達拼圖數據樣本構建匹配率模型。

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    To provide radar product thresholds close to the actual for thunderstorm identifying, tracking and nowcasting systems, and to establish the algorithm of thunderstorm day discrimination based on radar observation, the artificial thunderstorm observation and radar data are used to construct the matching rate model, and the cumulative departure method is adopted to identify the matching rate of inflection point to determine the thresholds and the optimal radius of hearing thunders, and the echo area of the threshold is given. Taking the Changde meteorological station as an example, using this method, it is resulted that: (1) The threshold value of radar product is 38.5 dBz, and the optimal radius of hearing thunders reaches 25 km, which is larger than the radius obtained by comparing the lightning location data with the artificial thunderstorm day. The echo area threshold value is 73 km2, and the evaluation indicates that the threshold values are appropriate. (2) The seasonal variation of thunderstorms should be taken into account when using various thresholds and radar data to judge thunderstorm days. The performance is satisfactory in the Changde area from March to August. (3) When using this method, the matching rate model should be constructed based on the single radar or radar mosaic data samples of the longtime series selected according to the historical hearingthunder locations.

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孟蕾,廖玉芳,湯亦豪.基于雷達產品閾值與聞雷半徑的雷暴過程判別[J].氣象科技,2021,49(1):25~31

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  • 收稿日期:2020-02-28
  • 定稿日期:2020-05-18
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  • 在線發布日期: 2021-03-04
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