濕度偏低對2016年上海奉賢黃桃開花坐果的影響及致災風險
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上海市氣象局科技開發項目(編號MS202018)、上海市氣象局2018年“青年英才”計劃共同資助


Effect of Low Humidity on Flowering and Fruiting of Yellow Peach in 2016 and Its Disaster Risk in Fengxian, Shanghai
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    利用2009—2018年奉賢黃桃休眠—花期各物候期、同期氣象要素及1980—2018年黃桃花期逐日日平均、日最小相對濕度等資料,用對比及數理統計方法對2016年影響黃桃開花坐果的主要氣象致災因子、39年花期相對濕度變化特征及其影響進行分析。結果表明:2016年黃桃開花始期—開花盛期遭遇持續6 d日最小相對濕度小于等于30%的低濕天氣,每天09:00—20:00各整點相對濕度的平均值小于等于50%,導致當年坐果大幅偏少。20世紀80年代以來,黃桃花期平均相對濕度、平均最小相對濕度均呈下降趨勢,兩者突變年份均為2000年,且3月下旬及4月上旬低濕天氣出現概率高,提升了黃桃花期遭遇低濕致災的風險。2009—2018年開花始期與5 d滑動平均氣溫大于等于10 ℃首日(簡稱10 ℃首日)呈顯著性正相關。建立基于10 ℃首日的黃桃開花始期最小二乘偏回歸方程,擬合效果較好,為協同應對低濕天氣提供預測服務。

    Abstract:

    Based on the data of phenological stages of dormant, flowering and fruiting of yellow peach and the contemporaneous meteorological elements in Fengxian from 2009 to 2018, the daily averaged relative humidity and minimum daily relative humidity during the flowering and fruiting periods of yellow peach from 1980 to 2018, the main meteorological disaster factors affecting the flowering and fruiting of yellow peach in 2016 and the characteristics and influence of relative humidity during flowering and fruiting periods in 39 years are analyzed by contrast and mathematical statistic methods. The results show that in 2016, from the beginning of flowering to the flowering period of yellow peach, fine weather lasted for 6 days, and the minimum daily relative humidity was less than 30%, and the average relative humidity from 09:00 to 20:00 every day was less than 50%. As a result, a large decrease was induced in fruit setting that year. The average relative humidity and the average minimum relative humidity in the flowering period of yellow peach showed a downward trend since the 1980s, and both mutation years are in 2000. The probability of lowhumidity weather in late March and early April was high so that low wet weather increased the risk of extreme lowhumidity disaster in the flowering period of yellow peach. The beginning of flowering period was significantly positively correlated with the first day of 5d sliding average temperature being greater than 10 ℃ from 2009 to 2018, based on which the partial least squares regression equation is established and verified. It is concluded that the model performs well in dealing with lowhumidity weather.

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徐相明,顧品強,陳琛,周宇,姚寅秋,湯晨陽.濕度偏低對2016年上海奉賢黃桃開花坐果的影響及致災風險[J].氣象科技,2020,48(6):903~910

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  • 收稿日期:2019-09-10
  • 定稿日期:2020-07-06
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  • 在線發布日期: 2020-12-28
  • 出版日期: 2020-12-31
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